The teams to beat this year is GWS, WC, COLL & US.
Since we first made finals 7 years ago under Hardwick, there's been a clear top 5 clubs who stand head and shoulders above the rest:
Geelong
Hawthorn
Sydney
Richmond
West Coast
Then there's a pretty large gap until Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Collingwood.
GWS only won 13 games last year and have never consistently been a top 4 football club in the past, and again they're not a top 4 club so far in 2020. They're a nothing club with no resources. Not a probable threat for mine. The draft pick hype is dead and that's all they had.
Collingwood enjoyed a boost to their performance by photocopying us after 2017 before Brisbane and others jumped onboard a year later. Unworthy clubs do sometimes win premiership (look at the Dogs), so they are a threat, but they're only a threat out of envy for how good we are.
I don't pay attention to WC. All I know about them is their coach is full of excuses like Brad Scott. In a pandemic, his excuses will be helpful to explain their poor start to the season, so the players will buy into it. So I think you're right, they could become a threat later in the year.
Brisbane and Geelong are both threats though IMO.
There has been a clear boost in performance to every club that copies our gameplan philosophy or relaxed attitude, and Brisbane have done both. But unlike Collingwood, they actually have a coach who isn't a total brick, so it's more genuine.
Brisbane also have the AFL's total praise behind them for Queensland's 2020 TV viewership shooting up like an Essendon player in a backyard shed. They were full of excuses before/after finals last year, which tells me they ramped up internal pressure for the finals and deviated from what works, which means they don't fully get the calm mindfulness stuff they seem to be copying and under pressure they revert back to more traditional methods that make it harder for their players. However, going out in straight sets last year means a finals win this year could basically fix that problem. From 2 attempts, a finals win could mean they'll be a young team who just proved their inner demons wrong, with the AFL's full support behind them, and every player is absolutely full of belief with no fear just 2-3 weeks before the Grand Final... so they've got the narrative, the gameplan, the AFL's evil tenticles at work, and the absence of a douchey coach. This makes Brisbane our number 1 threat IMO.
Ken Hinkley is capable of pulling off the caring stuff, but every year he screws it up with negativity when things go bad. I expect Port to collapse after a bad loss, or after the SA media returns to their normal later in the year, whichever comes first. There's just no reason for them to actually end up being better than every other team after all their years of consistent mediocrity.
In 2017, Richmond asked ourselves "Why not us?"... but in contrast, Port will be steering well clear of
that question.
Now Geelong... Geelong have the most H&A wins over the past 7-8 years, so they've convinced themselves they're by far the best team in that time. They believe they're fully entitled to their reward. Of course, they're delusional. However, pigheaded self-centred beliefs can be a dangerous thing. The shorter matches + shorter season will help their older players get through the year in good shape. On paper they're still a threat, but at the end of the day they'll need more than a great ruck coach to get through the thickest head in football.
So at this stage I've got my eye on Brisbane, then Collingwood, and then Geelong... but more than that, for 2020 I'm expecting the unexpected.
