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Global Warming

Sintiger said:
many scientists said extreme weather events like droughts and storms would get more extreme and more frequent and that’s what it seems like I am seeing.
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"Seems" being the operative word. From the last IPCC climate report:

- Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale
- Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy
- There is low confidence... that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods

Given the IPCC's penchant for making statements in these reports that are not scientifically valid, these concessions are significant.
 

Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Contents Summary Statement Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records Model simulations of greenhouse warming influence on Atlantic hurricanes Other possible human influences...
www.gfdl.noaa.gov

1. Summary Statement
Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following:

  • What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models?
  • Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?
The IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. But what does this change mean for hurricane activity? Here, we address these questions, starting with those conclusions where we have relatively more confidence. The main text then gives more background discussion. “Detectable” change here will refer to a change that is large enough to be clearly distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes. Our main conclusions are:

Likelihood Statements
The terminology here for likelihood statements generally follows the conventions used in the IPCC assessments, i.e., for the assessed likelihood of an outcome or result:
  • Very Likely: > 90%,
  • Likely: > 66%
  • More Likely Than Not (or Better Than Even Odds) > 50%
  • Sea level rise – which very likely has a substantial human contribution to the global mean observed rise according to IPCC AR5 – should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.
  • Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content. Modeling studies on average project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.
  • Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size. Storm size responses to anthropogenic warming are uncertain.
  • The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels will likely increase due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century. There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.
  • In terms of detection and attribution, much less is known about hurricane/tropical cyclone activity changes, compared to global temperature. In the northwest Pacific basin, there is emerging evidence for a detectable poleward shift in the latitude of maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, with a tentative link to anthropogenic warming. In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity. A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric (1982-2009) is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing. Reduced aerosol forcing since the 1970s probably contributed to the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since then, but the amount of contribution, relative to natural variability, remains uncertain. There is some evidence for a slowing of tropical cyclone propagation speeds over the continental U.S. over the past century, but these observed changes have not yet been confidently linked to anthropogenic climate change. Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
"Seems" being the operative word. From the last IPCC climate report:

- Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale
- Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy
- There is low confidence... that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods

Given the IPCC's penchant for making statements in these reports that are not scientifically valid, these concessions are significant.
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So the IPCC are now saying there is nothing to be concerned about?

Phew! We can all relax then.

Cherries getting harder to pick these days.
 
YinnarTiger said:
So the IPCC are now saying there is nothing to be concerned about?
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No, they said there is no evidence that extreme weather events are increasing at this stage (although they did try to claim it with hurricanes in a previous report and were subsequently corrected by the scientific community).

Scientists concur that the earth is greening (approx. 5% over the past two decades), which is to be expected given the relationship between CO2 and plant growth. That obviously doesn't mean there won't be drought in some regions.
 
tigerman said:

Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Contents Summary Statement Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records Model simulations of greenhouse warming influence on Atlantic hurricanes Other possible human influences...
www.gfdl.noaa.gov
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And?

"In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic... Therefore, we conclude that it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity."
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
And?

"In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic... Therefore, we conclude that it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity."
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Most of the data suggests that cyclones will be stronger in intensity, with more rainfall, and it predicts a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.


It's interesting because i lived and worked in the North West of Wa for the best part of 30 years. There seemed to be more cyclones 35 years ago than what there has been the last 10 or so years. We were always on the p!ss somewhere at a cyclone party.
 
The Big Richo said:
I think you blokes are missing the point re ScoMo.

Of course the bloke is entitled to have a holiday but when you are a leader you don't take one when there's an emergency in progress.

When we were down at half time in the preliminary final Cotch didn't head for Tullamarine and fly to Thailand, he led from the front. We are entitled to expect the same from the PM.
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Not in the least bothered if a Pollie *smile* of n has a holiday when the *smile*'s hitting the fan. All they are going to do is hang around getting in the way n posing for selfies looking serious.
I'd be seriously pissed off if the bosses of the Plod, Fireys or Emergency services buggered off n went on holidays when there is a crisis that directly involves them and their crews.
 
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The Big Richo said:
That exactly sums up where I sit as well SinTiger, but I'm also aware that the sheer weight of scientific knowledge on one side of the debate means you would be a fool to argue otherwise.

It's almost as though people have become so intrenched in the 'left or right, pick a side' sort of politics that have engulfed the world lately that they just have to toe the line and argue to the death for their side.

It was hysterical to see the comments from people on the scorching temperatures a couple of days ago, after painting themselves into a corner on climate change they had to be nonchalant .

"It's summer, we have hot days", "Finally summer is here", "In the 70s it was once hotter in Mildura," :rotfl2

My lack of scientific knowledge aside, it was close to 40 degrees still not far from midnight the other night, that's not normal and it certainly didn't used to happen. As I said if that and the weight of scientific support doesn't convince you, then you're living in a fantasy land.
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Well the experts on the news just a couple of days ago were suggesting that the temp in Melb was going to possibly, maybe, nearly be the hottest on record. The record having been set in the 1870's. So how much global warming n climate change have we actually had in the last 140 years when we didn't even know it existed?
 
tigerman said:
Most of the data suggests that cyclones will be stronger in intensity, with more rainfall, and it predicts a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.

It's interesting because i lived and worked in the North West of Wa for the best part of 30 years. There seemed to be more cyclones 35 years ago than what there has been the last 10 or so years. We were always on the p!ss somewhere at a cyclone party.
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Yes, the data bears out that observation.

tc-graph-1969-2012.png

Graph showing the number of severe and non-severe tropical cyclones from 1970-2017 which have occurred in the Australian region. Severe tropical cyclones are shown here as those with a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa.

And yes, the GFDL are predicting more hurricanes. I tend to view observations and predictions separately. Predicting the future is difficult in any field, let alone an emerging one like climate science.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Yes, the data bears out that observation.

tc-graph-1969-2012.png

Graph showing the number of severe and non-severe tropical cyclones from 1970-2017 which have occurred in the Australian region. Severe tropical cyclones are shown here as those with a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa.

And yes, the GFDL are predicting more hurricanes. I tend to view observations and predictions separately. Predicting the future is difficult in any field, let alone an emerging one like climate science.
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Cheers for that, the early 80's they were quite frequent, as were the parties.
 
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TigerMasochist said:
Those experts wouldn't be called Tim Flannery by any chance?
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No, the IPCC, the CSIRO, the BMO, the firies, and all the scientific evidence that has accumulated over the past thirty years or so.

Regarding "greening", there is evidence of higher plant intake of CO2 resulting in faster growth but there are negatives. Plants that grow faster have reduced minerals and nutritional value for humans and animals.

The other problem is that we are deforesting globally at a far greater rate than "greening" can possibly cover. The current rates of CO2 we have now were last seen 2.2 million years ago - sea levels were 25m higher than they are now and temperatures about 3 degrees higher.

We've managed be well on the way to this result based on about 100 years of industrialisation.

But I'm sure we'll all be fine.
 
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antman said:
Point he he prioritised identity politics over science and experts.
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It is an interesting take that he took the identity politics path particualrly when you consider the politics of the alternatives and their current political point grabbing in a time of National Crisis. Probably the second biggest reason Scott was voted in and will well serve him in the next election.
What Scott did was prioritised politics in his version of what is in the best interest of the country. The population voted, now he is doing what he said he was going to do, he is not flip flopping and breaking his commitments as he was elected to do.
Like it or not he is actually doing what he is being paid for and in my opinion doing it well. You will disagree no matter what i will assume.
Australias policy is also stable in relation to Climate Change, we are contributing positively and negatively. We set our targets along with the world and have so far stuck to it. It is a moving target and our contribution will change with it.
 
Coburgtiger said:
Bit of a strawman to say 'still not Scott's fault.'

No one is saying he started the bush fires.

The point is, he's a terrible leader.
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I haven’t been reading the Australian news for quite a while now, so I could be mistaken about this.

Although Scott is a terrible leader, it wasn’t his fault.

He hasn’t been seen since mid/late-September.
 
HR said:
Are you saying if he was a better leader and this year submitted to the demands of the Climate Change people the fires would not have happened?

I never disputed the "practical things" aspect but if you want to run over it again thats fine with me.

He is doing what he was elected to do so as far as a leader goes you should be happy because even though you dont agree with his policy he is stable, consistant and strong in his position and transparent in his communications. All pretty important traits for a leader.

Is it a strawman fight off here Coburg?
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I clearly said he had no effect on these bushfires. You are trying to set up a narrative that doesn't exist just so you can rail against it.

Also, you're confusing being a good leader with being stubborn and inflexible. Good leaders adapt when all the evidence says they need to. Look what Dimma did in 2017. They are also visible and present.

It's a little mind blowing to believe the blind devotion required to suggest that Scomo has shown good leadership in this circumstance. If leaving the country to go on holiday during a national emergency is good leadership, what's bad leadership?
 
123kid said:
I haven’t been reading the Australian news for quite a while now, so I could be mistaken about this.

Although Scott is a terrible leader, it wasn’t his fault.

He hasn’t been seen since mid/late-September.
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No one is saying that except people who want to argue against people saying that.
 
123kid said:
Has the last plane out of Sydney already gone?
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No, but it's almost gone.


And it's really got me worried
I'm goin' nowhere, and I'm in a hurry
You know the last plane out of Sydney's almost gone
 
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