Yep, the science tells us that "natural" disasters such as bushfires and floods will become more common and more severe. Yet there is no planning, no response, no attempt to stop our contribution to climate change. Absolute idiocy, or just an ideology which does not want to plan, wants to leave everything to the magical markets.
But another factor I want to bring up is the notion that climate change is a function of population growth rather than a function of consumption and a fossil fuel economy. I am reading a very good book at the moment called Fossil Capital by Andreas Malm and he goes through the reasons behind the rise of fossil fuels as an energy source, but he also gives some very interesting data on population and CO2 emissions.
First, I'll just point out the bleedingly obvious - more people will lead to greater CO2 emissions in a fossil fuel economy, this is clear, 20 million people have more capacity to burn fossil fuels than 20 people. Obvious and not in dispute.
But, what has actually happened?
Here's some data:
Global emissions increased by a factor of 654.8 in the period 1820 to 2010, population over the same period increased by a factor of 6.6. Clearly population is not the driver of CO2 emissions.
If we look more recently we see that population growth and emissions are actually disconnected.
Between 1980 and 2005 the following has been observed:
China's annual population growth was 1.1%, emissions growth: 5.6%
South Korea's annual population growth was 0.9%, emission growth: 5.3%
Djibouti's annual population growth: 3.5%, emissions growth: 0.8%
Chad, population growth 3.2%, emissions growth: 1.6%
As a whole, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 18.5% of global population growth and 3% of global emissions growth.
Northern America accounted for 4% of global population growth, and 14% of emissions growth.
Clearly the relationship between growth in population and growth in emissions are disconnected, the driver for emissions growth is not population.
All this is also happening when Northern America has been effectively outsourcing the emissions which result from their consumption as they import a lot more consumer goods rather than making them in the country of consumption.
We can see this in the emissions from China, while emissions from China have risen, the proportion of total emissions from China which are the result of export industries has risen to around 48%. The increases in emissions from China are mainly the result of industries which export consumer goods to the west.
The reality is that it is western consumption which is driving emissions and, as Malm points out, why should Bangladesh be blamed for the emissions which result from making a T Shirt for someone in Sweden?
We really do need to change the way our economies work, otherwise we will see warming well over 2 degrees and the consequences of this are already being felt with warming at around 1.1 degrees.
DS