keep your heads up everyone. there's light at the end of the tunnel.
despite having a healthy portion of morons, just like anywhere in the world, so far we're delivering promising results in our collective quest to flatten the curve. the true test will come in the next week or so when we see data after two weeks of heavy social distancing measures.
I see this thing unfolding in three phases.
1) lockdown social distancing - now until June
this is about flattening the curve. people will get sick, we can't stop that anymore. but every time you give the person walking toward you a wide berth you strike your own blow in flattening the curve. ensuring that when people DO get sick and need proper medical support, they get it. this phase can be scary with all the numbers flying around and with somewhat oppressive changes to the way we live, but Europe is already talking about de-escalation in several countries. I predict Australia will begin to de-escalate after term two of the school calendar ends.
2) COVID aware phase - June 2020 - June 2021
this is the part that not many seem to understand. the phase where society slowly comes back to life, but not as we knew it. at least, not until a safe vaccine hits around the middle of next year. once we have successfully flattened the curve and the numbers of new cases drops off, the gears of industry will creak back to life. non-essential businesses will be allowed to return around June. sport will return, but there will be no crowds. large gatherings of ~500 or more will not be allowed until mid 2021, when the vaccine will likely roll out. our lives will be still firmly rest in the shadow of COVID-19. we will each have mobile apps that tells us when we are in a "hot zone". societal control will be about targeting and neutralizing secondary outbreaks before they spread. the plan will be about tracking new infections and snuffing them out. stringent medical surveillance will reign and our lives will be altered, but not as drastically as what is occurring right now. importantly for us, sport will return. the AFL will finish their season in empty stadiums. cricket will be played in front of cameramen. the olympics will be triumphantly staged in 2021.
3) post COVID era - June 2021 onward
vaccine! post-COVID awareness and recognition. life to returns to near-normal. the economic fallout has already been huge. for all intents and purposes though, COVID will no longer be a grave threat.
