Thoroughbred racing

[Leysy Days]

Saturday is payday eZy !!

Got $2.90 yesterday, couldn't snap it up quick enough. After thinking $2.70 was a dream earlier in the day.

I'm all in on Fully Lit in the Black Opal on Sunday too. Grabbed $1.95 on Wednesday, into as short as $1.50 now.

Good shopping Mopsy.

I like Cylinder to get closer than in the Lightning with a 5.5kg weight turnaround and Kah steering

The form on this 3 year old crop of sprinters hasn't measured up so far. Will need to buck that trend to win.

Fair enough. 5.5kg is less than 2L over 1200m

And thats all things being equal.

But Imperatriz is a 580kg 1200cc motorbike

I dont think theres a horse within 4L of a imperatriz in that race, when Oppie really throttles her up.

I have benedetta running 3L second

Before dusty withdrew, i was tying myself in knots as to who was more certain; tigers or Imperatriz.

Although i think tigers win, the certainty went with dustys corky.

But theres clear air now,

And i can plunder the bookies bags like its spring of 2016

Ive brought forward my 23/24 punting budget,

And put it all on

GL Ezy. Love the confidence.

Going to be soft and stay out of the race at this stage. Dislike inside barriers up the straight and she's been at her best around a (right hand) bend.

Saying that, she is a champion so can't bet against her.

Buenos Noches the clear danger ILO. Meets her 4.5 kg better for a half length defeat in VRC Sprint in Spring. Given an easy first up ride as a pipe opener for this and jumped out like a jet this week. Blinkers go on and drawn well (wide). He's set to run a peak so the champ will need to be at her best to beat him.

 

[Leysy Days]

She's into $2.20 now. Perhaps due to moving the races forward.

Good shopping for those that got the $3.

 

[eZyT]

She's into $2.20 now. Perhaps due to moving the races forward.

Good shopping for those that got the $3.

Te akua arent cummings or waller and they're saying shes perfect.

Oppie said shes a straightforward motorbike.

Even the VRC are saying they wish theyde put more weight on her.

Espiona and private eye went to sydney cause they dont want to play Hay List.

I think she'll start at $1.85 and win by 3L eased down

@Mopsy alerted me and i took earlys at a nice premium too, not that theres much effective difference between a wheelbarrow 3/4 full with cash,

And one that full to the brim

 

[Redford]

What a fantastic day of sport. We’ve got the Tiges kicking their season off, Super Saturday, VFL, Wooters and co at the Arnie on Tour, NRL, NHL, the NBA is approaching the finals…..F1 with Oscar and Daniel in Saudi Arabia. Good grief what a great start to Season of Redford 2024.

Good luck to your teams and horses !

And stay out of that heat…phew.

 

[Leysy Days]

OK the Saturday Set is in. Gunna be a scorcher:

Flem:

Race 2 Fawkner Park - Simply has the best turn of foot in the race. Sit back swoop and win. Best of the day.

Race 6 Molly Knickers - Excellent first up. Improved here and maps perfectly on a day they should swoop.

Rand:

Race 6 Private Eye - Simply too good for this lot. No Imperatriz's here.

Race 9 Celestial Legend - Maps to get over the top of them. Think it's a horse going places.

Race 10 Wee Nessy - Crazy price. Can get double figures. Jumped out very well.

Great day at the Birmingham Hotel Fitzroy coming up.

Sorry Redford couldn't get an E/W bet in for you today.

Go Tiges

 

[LachlanGrant]

Jamie having some sort of day so far.

 

[eZyT]

Imperatriz didnt look like the winner for a single metre of that race to me. I dont think the handicapper got her, i reckon she just ran flat. Heat perhaps? Thats punting and my autumn finished.
The winner was good though.

 

[LachlanGrant]

Can someone more experienced with horse racing explain that ride by Nash Rawlier on Private Eye to me?

Did he have a bet against himself or something?

 

[Mopsy]

Tough old day today.

Couple of winners at a decent price - Passive Aggressive and Autumn Angel have given me a small profit though.

Like Leysy I like Celestial Legend in the next.

With Fully Lit to come tomorrow.

Those 2 will make it a very nice weekend.

 

[Mopsy]

Can someone more experienced with horse racing explain that ride by Nash Rawlier on Private Eye to me?

Did he have a bet against himself or something?

I didn’t like ihim second up over 1000.

The ride was poor though, never gave him a chance.

 

[Redford]

Hedged - win
Bermadez - last
Pivot City - 5th
Imperatriz - second (bonus bet)
Von Hauke - win
Eternal Flame - win
….for me today.

And a colossal belting of Richmond although I didn’t have a bet on them or any other game, thankfully. Too tough to pick in the footy this first week I reckon.

Geez we are bad.

 

[Ridley]

Can someone more experienced with horse racing explain that ride by Nash Rawlier on Private Eye to me?

Did he have a bet against himself or something?

Private Eye is not a 1000m horse. His lack of early pace showed that. He will run well fresh over shorter trips like many horses but generally 1000m sprinters are too sharp for him. Better suited to 1200-1400m. He'll probably run in the TJ Smith but can't see him beating Imperatriz or I Wish I Win.

 

[Ridley]

Imperatriz didnt look like the winner for a single metre of that race to me. I dont think the handicapper got her, i reckon she just ran flat. Heat perhaps? Thats punting and my autumn finished.
The winner was good though.

58kg is a lot of weight ezy. Giving 6.5kg to a quality colt is a big ask for a mare. Black Caviar carried 58kg when she walked in. Imperatriz is a great horse but she is nowhere near Black Caviar.

That said I did fall in at the $2.70 but was not as confident as I have been in her WFA starts.

 

[LachlanGrant]

Private Eye is not a 1000m horse. His lack of early pace showed that. He will run well fresh over shorter trips like many horses but generally 1000m sprinters are too sharp for him. Better suited to 1200-1400m. He'll probably run in the TJ Smith but can't see him beating Imperatriz or I Wish I Win.

Thanks for the explanation, I think I got fooled because of how it pushed Imperatriz last race

 

[Ridley]

Tough old day today.

Couple of winners at a decent price - Passive Aggressive and Autumn Angel have given me a small profit though.

Like Leysy I like Celestial Legend in the next.

With Fully Lit to come tomorrow.

Those 2 will make it a very nice weekend.

Yep tough day Mops. How many shorties got rolled! Imperatriz, Amenable (may now be a gelding but he's still a cat!), Private Eye, Think About It, Militarize. I backed a few but it was hard to keep the head above water. Autumn Angel, Eternal Flame, Tintookie. Felt like I also backed a dozen 2nds and 3rds

Nearly had an amazing result with Cafe Millenium in Randwick Guineas. Had him e/w $101 win and $14 place. Thought he was home at the 200m but beaten a head to run 3rd

 

[Ridley]

Thanks for the explanation, I think I got fooled because of how it pushed Imperatriz last race

Many horses can sprint really well fresh at distances shorter than their most suitable.

 

[Ridley]

I didn’t like ihim second up over 1000.

The ride was poor though, never gave him a chance.

Unless he's fresh he doesn't have enough zip for 1000m. Don't think he's ever won over the trip. Has won over 1100mm.

 

[Ridley]

Race 2 Fawkner Park - Simply has the best turn of foot in the race. Sit back swoop and win. Best of the day.

Race 6 Molly Knickers - Excellent first up. Improved here and maps perfectly on a day they should swoop.

A rare poor ride by Shinn. Got too far back and allowed the winner to dictate. Never gave FP a chance.

Melham on Molly completely outrode by Zahra on Autumn Angel. Molly was ahead of AA on the turn. Zahra took the initiative and snookered Molly. He gained a couple of lengths and that was it. Margin was a head? Shithouse Melham.

 

[Mopsy]

Yep tough day Mops. How many shorties got rolled! Imperatriz, Amenable (may now be a gelding but he's still a cat!), Private Eye, Think About It, Militarize. I backed a few but it was hard to keep the head above water. Autumn Angel, Eternal Flame, Tintookie. Felt like I also backed a dozen 2nds and 3rds

Nearly had an amazing result with Cafe Millenium in Randwick Guineas. Had him e/w $101 win and $14 place. Thought he was home at the 200m but beaten a head to run 3rd

Cafe Millenium was a much improved run. Stiff bud.

But how good the winner? Had no right to win given the run it had. As Leysy intimated, it’s a horse with a big future if it isn’t sent to the breeding barn.

The one that hurt me most was Lady Laguna. She cost me a multi a couple of weeks back. Of course she then salutes at 10-1

 

[Ridley]

Cafe Millenium was a much improved run. Stiff bud.

But how good the winner? Had no right to win given the run it had. As Leysy intimated, it’s a horse with a big future if it isn’t sent to the breeding barn.

The one that hurt me most was Lady Laguna. She cost me a multi a couple of weeks back. Of course she then salutes at 10-1

I think Les Bridge said after the race that CL is the best he's ever trained?

Can't believe LL won that race. Enormous class rise even if she has been in good form.