Agree mate.
If you go back through our draft history, 10 years or 20 years, you get pretty much the same outcome, 1 in 2 are hits. So if we gave up three first rounders for Taranto and Hopper, we've actually improved the odds of seeing what the draft does hitting twice in 3 picks! Plus we are not talking about giving top end draft picks here like 1-8, we are talking picks in the mid teen's and 20's. And likely to be pick 13 or more with father/sons like Ashcroft lowering their value, then the second pick into the early 20's because of him and other F/S and early 30's for the 3rd pick.
2011 – Brandon Ellis – pick 15
2011 – Todd Elton – pick 26
2012 - Vlastuin - pick 11
2013 - Lennon - pick 12
2014 - Corey Ellis - pick 12
2015 - D Rioli – pick 15
2016 - no first round pick
2017 - Higgins – pick 17
2018 - RCD - pick 20
2019 - Dow - pick 21
2020 – no first round draft pick
2021 - Gibcus – pick 9
2021 – Brown – pick 17
(Note - Round 1 in 2011 went down to pick 26, because Giants had 11 picks in the first round)
3 pass, 6 fail - Gibcus and Brown still to be seen. If we give Gibcus as a hit, that’s 4/11, if you think Brown is going to be a hit too, that’s still just 5/11. Again 1 in 2.
If we go back 11 picks before them -
2010 – Reece Conca – pick 6
2009 – Martin – pick 3
2008 – Vickery – pick 8
2007 – Cotchin – 2
2007 – Priority pick – Rance – pick 18
2006 – Riewoldt – pick 13
2005 – Oakley-Nicholls – pick 8
2004 – Deledio – pick 1
2004 – Tambling – pick 4
2004 – Meyer – pick 12
2004 – Pattison – pick 16
6 hits, 5 fails. Still around that 50% mark.
If I go back to the 90's, it gets even worse and may lead to lots of phone calls to Mental Health Helplines, and I can't do that aye!!
So in theory, it’s a win for me with two long-term guaranteed first 22 players until 2029, regardless of whatever picks/players the club negotiates with the Giants.
Just bring them in and stop worrying because the midfield picks in 2013, 2014, 2017 (
who should be in their prime playing years right now for us) and the 2018 & 2019 picks who are pretty much 'tweeners' between the seniors and reserves, but mostly reserves players just don't look like they're going to be with us until 2029.