I actually think it's in gws best interests for deals for hopper,Taranto not to go into last 2 days as if hopper stays ,they will.have to trade someone else out,which to me means they can't demand overs,only a fair trade.
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2022 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Scoop
- Start date
Agree mate.
If you go back through our draft history, 10 years or 20 years, you get pretty much the same outcome, 1 in 2 are hits. So if we gave up three first rounders for Taranto and Hopper, we've actually improved the odds of seeing what the draft does hitting twice in 3 picks! Plus we are not talking about giving top end draft picks here like 1-8, we are talking picks in the mid teen's and 20's. And likely to be pick 13 or more with father/sons like Ashcroft lowering their value, then the second pick into the early 20's because of him and other F/S and early 30's for the 3rd pick.
2011 – Brandon Ellis – pick 15
2011 – Todd Elton – pick 26
2012 - Vlastuin - pick 11
2013 - Lennon - pick 12
2014 - Corey Ellis - pick 12
2015 - D Rioli – pick 15
2016 - no first round pick
2017 - Higgins – pick 17
2018 - RCD - pick 20
2019 - Dow - pick 21
2020 – no first round draft pick
2021 - Gibcus – pick 9
2021 – Brown – pick 17
(Note - Round 1 in 2011 went down to pick 26, because Giants had 11 picks in the first round)
3 pass, 6 fail - Gibcus and Brown still to be seen. If we give Gibcus as a hit, that’s 4/11, if you think Brown is going to be a hit too, that’s still just 5/11. Again 1 in 2.
If we go back 11 picks before them -
2010 – Reece Conca – pick 6
2009 – Martin – pick 3
2008 – Vickery – pick 8
2007 – Cotchin – 2
2007 – Priority pick – Rance – pick 18
2006 – Riewoldt – pick 13
2005 – Oakley-Nicholls – pick 8
2004 – Deledio – pick 1
2004 – Tambling – pick 4
2004 – Meyer – pick 12
2004 – Pattison – pick 16
6 hits, 5 fails. Still around that 50% mark.
If I go back to the 90's, it gets even worse and may lead to lots of phone calls to Mental Health Helplines, and I can't do that aye!!
So in theory, it’s a win for me with two long-term guaranteed first 22 players until 2029, regardless of whatever picks/players the club negotiates with the Giants.
Just bring them in and stop worrying because the midfield picks in 2013, 2014, 2017 (who should be in their prime playing years right now for us) and the 2018 & 2019 picks who are pretty much 'tweeners' between the seniors and reserves, but mostly reserves players just don't look like they're going to be with us until 2029.
And if hopper taranto are playing well still, tigers could in both their last years offer 2 x 500 instead of 1 x 750 which happens already.
Players have far more control over where they play than that, well the good ones do anyway.
Once a player nominates their club of choice then that’s where they end up on the vast majority of cases.
Look at that knob at North, spends one year there and is off to Adelaide. This isn’t a new phenomenon either, Nathan Buckley anyone
We don't draft well period.Agree mate.
If you go back through our draft history, 10 years or 20 years, you get pretty much the same outcome, 1 in 2 are hits. So if we gave up three first rounders for Taranto and Hopper, we've actually improved the odds of seeing what the draft does hitting twice in 3 picks! Plus we are not talking about giving top end draft picks here like 1-8, we are talking picks in the mid teen's and 20's. And likely to be pick 13 or more with father/sons like Ashcroft lowering their value, then the second pick into the early 20's because of him and other F/S and early 30's for the 3rd pick.
2011 – Brandon Ellis – pick 15
2011 – Todd Elton – pick 26
2012 - Vlastuin - pick 11
2013 - Lennon - pick 12
2014 - Corey Ellis - pick 12
2015 - D Rioli – pick 15
2016 - no first round pick
2017 - Higgins – pick 17
2018 - RCD - pick 20
2019 - Dow - pick 21
2020 – no first round draft pick
2021 - Gibcus – pick 9
2021 – Brown – pick 17
(Note - Round 1 in 2011 went down to pick 26, because Giants had 11 picks in the first round)
3 pass, 6 fail - Gibcus and Brown still to be seen. If we give Gibcus as a hit, that’s 4/11, if you think Brown is going to be a hit too, that’s still just 5/11. Again 1 in 2.
If we go back 11 picks before them -
2010 – Reece Conca – pick 6
2009 – Martin – pick 3
2008 – Vickery – pick 8
2007 – Cotchin – 2
2007 – Priority pick – Rance – pick 18
2006 – Riewoldt – pick 13
2005 – Oakley-Nicholls – pick 8
2004 – Deledio – pick 1
2004 – Tambling – pick 4
2004 – Meyer – pick 12
2004 – Pattison – pick 16
6 hits, 5 fails. Still around that 50% mark.
If I go back to the 90's, it gets even worse and may lead to lots of phone calls to Mental Health Helplines, and I can't do that aye!!
So in theory, it’s a win for me with two long-term guaranteed first 22 players until 2029, regardless of whatever picks/players the club negotiates with the Giants.
Just bring them in and stop worrying because the midfield picks in 2013, 2014, 2017 (who should be in their prime playing years right now for us) and the 2018 & 2019 picks who are pretty much 'tweeners' between the seniors and reserves, but mostly reserves players just don't look like they're going to be with us until 2029.
Take away the obvious picks of Cotchin Deledio & Martin our record of hits in the 1st round is disgraceful.
Thank God for Big V, Rioli & Riewoldt
We seem to constantly take kids that have major flaws in there games..
I want to know what did they see in Corey Ellis, Higgins & Dow?
All exactly the same, small midfielders with a patchy form with issues of winning there own ball.
Higgins couldn't kick 35metres.
Collier Dawkins can't run out games.
Dow has no left side.
Lennon unbelievably slow.
Griffens, Elton & Coleman Jones WTF
We should only go to the draft if we really know the kid can play.
With Rookie and preseason draft's, the kids are more hungry to play.
This is objectively false. You keep saying it but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Using 'first round' as the assessment pool is flawed for starters. top 4 versus 5 to 18 is chalk and cheese. I crunched the numbers elsewhere, its not an exact science, but what we can say is that it is not bad, and definitely not disgraceful.
Depending on which way you want to interpret how we've drafted V the data, a benchmark, our late first round drafting has been OK to good.
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correct. The numbers back you up, from across the league, 1 in 3 chance of drafting a 200 gamer with a pick from 6 to 20. So correct on your 3 first rounders (picks 10-20) scenario re improving the odds, which is why GWS will demand 4.
Lennon and Corey Ellis are minbogglingly poor really. At least RCD and Dow had some positive traits.Agree mate.
If you go back through our draft history, 10 years or 20 years, you get pretty much the same outcome, 1 in 2 are hits. So if we gave up three first rounders for Taranto and Hopper, we've actually improved the odds of seeing what the draft does hitting twice in 3 picks! Plus we are not talking about giving top end draft picks here like 1-8, we are talking picks in the mid teen's and 20's. And likely to be pick 13 or more with father/sons like Ashcroft lowering their value, then the second pick into the early 20's because of him and other F/S and early 30's for the 3rd pick.
2011 – Brandon Ellis – pick 15
2011 – Todd Elton – pick 26
2012 - Vlastuin - pick 11
2013 - Lennon - pick 12
2014 - Corey Ellis - pick 12
2015 - D Rioli – pick 15
2016 - no first round pick
2017 - Higgins – pick 17
2018 - RCD - pick 20
2019 - Dow - pick 21
2020 – no first round draft pick
2021 - Gibcus – pick 9
2021 – Brown – pick 17
(Note - Round 1 in 2011 went down to pick 26, because Giants had 11 picks in the first round)
3 pass, 6 fail - Gibcus and Brown still to be seen. If we give Gibcus as a hit, that’s 4/11, if you think Brown is going to be a hit too, that’s still just 5/11. Again 1 in 2.
If we go back 11 picks before them -
2010 – Reece Conca – pick 6
2009 – Martin – pick 3
2008 – Vickery – pick 8
2007 – Cotchin – 2
2007 – Priority pick – Rance – pick 18
2006 – Riewoldt – pick 13
2005 – Oakley-Nicholls – pick 8
2004 – Deledio – pick 1
2004 – Tambling – pick 4
2004 – Meyer – pick 12
2004 – Pattison – pick 16
6 hits, 5 fails. Still around that 50% mark.
If I go back to the 90's, it gets even worse and may lead to lots of phone calls to Mental Health Helplines, and I can't do that aye!!
So in theory, it’s a win for me with two long-term guaranteed first 22 players until 2029, regardless of whatever picks/players the club negotiates with the Giants.
Just bring them in and stop worrying because the midfield picks in 2013, 2014, 2017 (who should be in their prime playing years right now for us) and the 2018 & 2019 picks who are pretty much 'tweeners' between the seniors and reserves, but mostly reserves players just don't look like they're going to be with us until 2029.
You need a couple of first rounders to nail one key position talent, pretty much a 50% strike rate even with the very best in the business. Over the years I've seen quite a few recruiters pumped up for their success rate with early picks but they still come up short when it comes to filling out the spine. I thought Francis Jackosn approached this dilemma with a fair degree of professionalism, he lost on Griffiths but succeeded with Riewoldt, he missed on Elton but nailed Rance, even the Vickery selection went in our favour given that pick turned into Bolton. The Hawthorn dynasty also saw plenty of busts - Dowler, Thorp, Schoenmakers. but the good picks brought them success - Buddy, Roughie, Croad. The Saints went with McCartin over Petracca but the thinking & philosophy was sound, they just lost the 50/50 call, perhaps they should have diluted that pick and grabbed Wright & Lever, that was something that crossed my mind at the time.
Broadly agree with the thinking, but the strike rate for picks 6 to 18 is 33% or 1 in 3 across the comp, so I'd be very surprised if the best in the business is 50%. There might be periods where you hit that, but averaged out over the long term, 40% would be closer to the mark for the best in the business. The stats would say, in any field of endeavor, if you can beat the average or benchmark by 10 or 15% over time, you are successful.
I used to criticize Francis Jackson but when you look back he has done well compared to the overall league average strike rate. Even with the top picks. Image where we would be if he had of went Cale Morton over Cotch or Morabito over Dusty.
I did a rough one last year but from 1-30, it came in around 50%, but worth noting the immense difficulty in finding a forward which came in closer to 30%. The strength of 1-5 not as pronounced as it was a few years ago, McKay, Curnow, Naughton & Max King have evened out the ledger somewhat, even more so with Darcy Fogarty emerging this year. SOS is one of the most peculiar case studies in recent recruitment history, his record with talls is outstanding but his sucess rate with midfielders bordering on negligent, there has been nothing value added with any of his unique calls, it's been a trainwreck with his last leftfield pick exiting the building after only 28 games.
Gee I wish Daniel. He is the KF of all the KFs I have wanted us to chase for a couple of yrs now.
Just like I wanted Taranto all year and hoped he was on our radar, Marshall is the one I 'd hoped was on our hitlist too.
Posted LY that Port is a watch this space these next 18 months. I think it might be a fork in the road time with Ken and reckon there's some good talent on their list. Will Kochy move Ken on after 10 yrs? And if they dont have a great year, could we entice Marshall, he is contracted to 2024.
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2006: Riewoldt
2007: Rance
2008: Vickery, Post
2009: Griffiths, Astbury
2010: Grimes
2011: Elton
2014: Reece McKenzie
2015: Moore, Chol
Eleven picks, 2 elites in Rance & Riewoldt, 2 premiership defenders in Astbury & Grimes, 1 surplus player who yielded an A grade mid, 1 rookie pick who yielded a second rounder.
Grade: A
Well done Francis Jackson.
2007: Rance
2008: Vickery, Post
2009: Griffiths, Astbury
2010: Grimes
2011: Elton
2014: Reece McKenzie
2015: Moore, Chol
Eleven picks, 2 elites in Rance & Riewoldt, 2 premiership defenders in Astbury & Grimes, 1 surplus player who yielded an A grade mid, 1 rookie pick who yielded a second rounder.
Grade: A
Well done Francis Jackson.
Bully, if there was a chance that we could not use either our pick 19 or next years first in the Hopper/Taranto trade, which one would you go for? Obvious answer is next years pick but if we had 19 available this year we might be able to snag a KPF and it looks like there might be a few available from reports? But apparently next year is a superdraft (aren't they all) so not sure if it would be better to keep next years pick instead?
