2017 Under 18 Champs

[bullus_hit]

no, darcy parish is from south barwon, and i seen him play heaps, was always going around top 5-6,similar but was getting considerably more ball,young naish in this draft wont go top 15, no chance at all.

He's top 20 from my perspective so it will be a line ball call. I hope we get lucky but there's a risk. What Naish highlighted for me on the weekend was that his development curve is motoring along, his contested work is on the improve, his overhead marking is a strength and his long kicking game is perfectly suited to AFL. I see genuine hurt factor. Keenly awaiting his athletic data because this will determine whether he goes around the 15 mark or drifts out to the second round.

 

[jokershoppe]

agree he could easily be around pick 15-20, just think theres no chance hes getting called out at say pick 12,has you would risk probably a better player at pick 12, ALSO I,M A TIGER WHO WANTS HIM TO NOT GO TOP 15, SO WE GET 3 TOP JUNIORS ( a rare situation for us)

 

[Harry]

He's top 20 from my perspective so it will be a line ball call. I hope we get lucky but there's a risk. What Naish highlighted for me on the weekend was that his development curve is motoring along, his contested work is on the improve, his overhead marking is a strength and his long kicking game is perfectly suited to AFL. I see genuine hurt factor. Keenly awaiting his athletic data because this will determine whether he goes around the 15 mark or drifts out to the second round.

Surely we can test him behind closed doors and then tell him to tank the combine

 

[T-Shirt Tommy]

While we can't request that Naish tank in the games that he plays, surely we could ask him to tank in the physical testing...

Just beat me to it Harry.

 

[Harry]

Still reckon you should only have to pay a 2nd rounder for a father son. If you get lucky you get lucky

 

[nikolasmia]

Not sure why everyone is concerned in paying too much for Naish.

Naishes value will be determined by the market.

If the market values him as a first round pick then so be it, we win because we pay ( market - 20% )

We will know by the trade period where he is likely to be bid on in the draft and by whom. This gives us enough time to manipulate our draft hand for maximum leverage.

We will either get our hands on another 2nd rounder, and or package up our 2 1st round draft picks for a higher pick.

Either way, we can't lose here, one way or the other, the point is we will be getting a player in for less than he is worth.

It is all good

 

[TigerMad]

Naishes value will be determined by the market.

If the market values him as a first round pick then so be it, we win because we pay ( market - 20% )

The 'market' might be wrong, for several reasons!
So you would match and take Naish at our first pick without hesitation?

 

[Jonesracing82]

Said as much at the time, just happened to pick the wrong tall in Darling. But the point has been a salient one for the last 20 years, Ottens vs Johnstone, Pavlich vs Fiora, Franklin vs Tambling, Josh Kennedy vs X.Ellis, Hurley vs Hartlett. The one thing these decisions have in common is that the bust has come in the form of a quasi midfielder who may have been eye-catching but didn't tick all the necessary boxes. I'm certainly not writing off Rayner, I like him a lot but I wouldn't be taking any chances with a premium pick.

interesting comparisons there which does prove your point about "if in doubt grab the tall"

 

[Tony Braxton-Hicks]

Not sure why everyone is concerned in paying too much for Naish.

It's un-Australian not to want free stuff.

 

[tigersnake]

It's un-Australian not to want free stuff.

;D

 

[St Kevin]

Still reckon you should only have to pay a 2nd rounder for a father son. If you get lucky you get lucky

That logic won Geelong 3 flags and helped the Dogs get one last year.

Trust the AFL to tweak the rules once we actually have a few father/sons worth picking.

 

[spook]

Yep, the f/son rule as it was allowed Geelong to take Ablett at 40, gifting them Stevie J at 24, around the range Jnr would have been bid on. Then they got Hawkins at 42 when he would have been bid on at #1, gifting them Selwood at 7.

interesting comparisons there which does prove your point about "if in doubt grab the tall"

Except of course in 2008, when we grabbed Vickery instead of Ziebell or Sidebottom, and Post instead of Beams, Hannebery or Sloane.

 

[Scoop]

Except of course in 2008, when we grabbed Vickery instead of Ziebell or Sidebottom, and Post instead of Beams, Hannebery or Sloane.

For every action there is a reaction!! So butchered.

 

[caesar]

Yep, the f/son rule as it was allowed Geelong to take Ablett at 40, gifting them Stevie J at 24, around the range Jnr would have been bid on. Then they got Hawkins at 42 when he would have been bid on at #1, gifting them Selwood at 7.

What are we complaining about we got gifted Tom Roach @ pick 37 and Andrew Raines @ 76 :rofl
Just dumb luck that our player's swimmer's produce duds.

 

[easy_tiger]

Yep, the f/son rule as it was allowed Geelong to take Ablett at 40, gifting them Stevie J at 24, around the range Jnr would have been bid on. Then they got Hawkins at 42 when he would have been bid on at #1, gifting them Selwood at 7.

OMG.

by the time Richo's boy is 18, we'll have to pay 3 first rounders for him.

or they'lle hand him to the Tassie Salmon

 

[Midsy]

What are we complaining about we got gifted Tom Roach @ pick 37 and Andrew Raines @ 76 :rofl
Just dumb luck that our player's swimmer's produce duds.

Reckon Rainesy Jr was mismanaged a fair bit. He was a decent player but never really got used effectively.

 

[easy_tiger]

Reckon Rainesy Jr was mismanaged a fair bit. He was a decent player but never really got used effectively.

one of slowest smalls I can remember.

which shows how good his ball winning and skills must have been to have made it.

runs the GC academy and does private training on the coast.

seems like a very nice fella. be lucky to be 75kg

 

[jokershoppe]

if naish is called out at pick 12, then we would need a pick 17 in points value to secure him, if hes called out at pick 18, then a second round pick at 23 would be needed, 3 thirds would cover it also, or we could 2 thirds and go into a small deficit in the 2018 draft.

 

[TigerPort]

if naish is called out at pick 12, then we would need a pick 17 in points value to secure him, if hes called out at pick 18, then a second round pick at 23 would be needed, 3 thirds would cover it also, or we could 2 thirds and go into a small deficit in the 2018 draft.

We have our's and GWS's third rounders.

Given the respective positions on the ladder we have the following point position:

Our's 287
GWS's 220

Total 507.

After pick # 18 the discount is fixed at 197 points. So adding 197 to the combined value of the 3rd round picks we have 706 points

Pick #27 is 703 points. So right now is Naish gets bid on at or after pick # 27 we are sweet.

We can also use our 4th round pick which is currently worth 69 points. This elevates us to pick # 25. Any bid higher than pick #25 and after our two first rounds means we would go into deficit in the 2018 draft.

Using your example above and a club bids at #18 then we need 985 points less the discount of 197 = 788. our two 3rd rounds plus our 4th round total 576. We would then go into deficit for 2018. Say we finished 4th in 2018 our pick #15 would drop to pick #21

 

[tigertim]

Reckon Rainesy Jr was mismanaged a fair bit. He was a decent player but never really got used effectively.

Yep, he got burnt. Runner up in the 2006 rising star and the JD medal. 13 AFL seasons and 129 games for a pick 76 is pretty good.