Coronavirus

[tigerman]

"Even a fourth shot of a Covid-19 vaccine is “not good enough” to prevent Omicron, according to a preliminary study in Israel."

Fourth jab still doesn’t stop Omicron

Even a fourth shot of a Covid-19 vaccine is “not good enough” to prevent Omicron, according to a preliminary study in Israel.

www.news.com.au

 

[Tigers of Old]

To be fair it is Sutton (the most reserved of anyone) who has driven the narrative we are over the peak of case numbers (In Vic at least).

Also mentioned hospital numbers will lag behind (i.e. get worse) for a few more weeks before starting to improve.

Cheers Daisy I missed that. You're right he does say he thinks we're close. I hope he's right.

 

[pete and tys]

We've been through this illogical argument about "dying with" or "dying from" before. It is another furfy thrown out by those trying to play down Omicron. If a person with terminal cancer dies in a car crash - how do you think they record the death. They also seem to have no concept of maths by continually quoting %s when it is the real numbers that matter. And one more is that they argue like you either die or a 100% fine - they don't cover off the wide range of health implications in betweeIt is not a furfy.

It is not a furfy. In your analogy those people died of a MVA ,with cancer as an associated condition. Very clear.
If you have covid but die from dementia then covid has nothing to do with it. You die of dementia.
People are dying constantly from all manner of reasons and often have multiple associated issues, be they
hypertension,heart disease, diabetes, obesity, influenza, hiv...the list is endless.
But.....to say X number of people died each day from covid and not indicating those that did not die directly from covid is misleading and in my view a typical beatup or just lack of comprehension.
This is not underplaying Omicron or covid at all. It is a search for the truth.....geez it's hard to find and that is the point I am making.
I don't know why everyone feels they must push an agenda, including posters here.
Nothing is better than the truth and honest reporting of facts.

 

[pete and tys]

"Even a fourth shot of a Covid-19 vaccine is “not good enough” to prevent Omicron, according to a preliminary study in Israel."

Fourth jab still doesn’t stop Omicron

Even a fourth shot of a Covid-19 vaccine is “not good enough” to prevent Omicron, according to a preliminary study in Israel.

www.news.com.au

This is a poor article.
Nobody said vaccination will prevent infection...it does not.
It reduces severity of illness in those who produce enough antibodies and this will improve with more boosters but not for everyone.

 

[Harry]

"Even a fourth shot of a Covid-19 vaccine is “not good enough” to prevent Omicron, according to a preliminary study in Israel."

Fourth jab still doesn’t stop Omicron

Even a fourth shot of a Covid-19 vaccine is “not good enough” to prevent Omicron, according to a preliminary study in Israel.

www.news.com.au

Don't go there. You'll be labelled an anti-vaxxer.

 

[Sintiger]

It is not a furfy. In your analogy those people died of a MVA ,with cancer as an associated condition. Very clear.
If you have covid but die from dementia then covid has nothing to do with it. You die of dementia.
People are dying constantly from all manner of reasons and often have multiple associated issues, be they
hypertension,heart disease, diabetes, obesity, influenza, hiv...the list is endless.
But.....to say X number of people died each day from covid and not indicating those that did not die directly from covid is misleading and in my view a typical beatup or just lack of comprehension.
This is not underplaying Omicron or covid at all. It is a search for the truth.....geez it's hard to find and that is the point I am making.
I don't know why everyone feels they must push an agenda, including posters here.
Nothing is better than the truth and honest reporting of facts.

What people "die of" is a matter for the doctor and what he/she puts on the death certificate.

People don't die of COVID, they die of the conditions that occur because they have COVID or are exacerbated by COVID. They are dying of respiratory failure or pneumonia or whatever but they would not have had those conditions if they did not have COVID , or maybe not yet. Many people who have cancer don't die of the cancer, they die of organ failure as an example, some die of cardiac arrest or other things but they die because they have cancer not of it.

There is no doubt that some people who are dying now had co-morbidities like heart problems or lung problems. Some are advanced age and their bodies can't handle what the virus does to them.

Something like 30% of the patients in ICU in Australia right now have COVID. Some may have been sick already, some may be elderly but many are not and those that aren't in those 2 categories are overwhelmingly unvaccinated because they don't have the T-cell protection that the vaccinated have. (This last piece of information is from a very senior ICU leader in this country from a meeting that I attended. ) Those 30% would mostly not be ICU if it were not from COVID, even in the peak flu season the number of patients with flu in ICU is far less than 30%.

 

[mrposhman]

Ok so I've taken a stab at having a look at excess deaths as these aren't shown anywhere.

So I went to the ABS for historical death rates and populations. I have just looked at Victoria for the timebeing. So looking at the 3 year average before Covid, we should have around 117 deaths per day.



I then went to BDM's and they report monthly data around total deaths in Victoria. I used the reported Covid deaths for the last 3 months of 2021 and therefore worked out the Non Covid deaths from the Total deaths (from BDM's). It broadly shows we were in line with expected deaths for the 4th quarter, November is a bit of an anomaly, a bit higher. Not sure what would have caused that.

For Jan's estimate, I have taken the average non Covid deaths and added the reported deaths to 19th to it, along with an estimate for the remaining 12 days at the 7 day average of 17 deaths per day (this could rise), which would suggest that we have excess deaths in Jan of 7 (similar to November). Equivalent to about 6% above the expected mortality rate. Interesting to see the actual figures for deaths in January.

 

[RoarEmotion]

Ok so I've taken a stab at having a look at excess deaths as these aren't shown anywhere.

Nice work doing all this. I did post excess death charts a few pages back, but looks like different data source.

Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID

For countries that have not reported all-cause mortality data for a given week, an estimate is shown, with uncertainty interval. If reported data is available, that value only is shown.

ourworldindata.org

Looks like for Australia, the deaths that lockdown / public health measures have saved >> COVID related deaths. It's a pretty impressive public health outcome when you look at the face of it (and not weighing against any downsides).

 

[Leysy Days]

Cheers Daisy I missed that. You're right he does say he thinks we're close. I hope he's right.

Yeah bloody hope so mate.

 

[tigersnake]

We've been through this illogical argument about "dying with" or "dying from" before. It is another furfy thrown out by those trying to play down Omicron. If a person with terminal cancer dies in a car crash - how do you think they record the death. They also seem to have no concept of maths by continually quoting %s when it is the real numbers that matter. And one more is that they argue like you either die or a 100% fine - they don't cover off the wide range of health implications in between.

The died with died from crap does my head in. Just so dumb, ridiculous.

My uncle had a car accident many years ago which left him with organ damage. He got lung cancer a few years ago and died. Using this false logic he died with lung cancer and not from it, see? WTF? These clowns have had a logic bypass.

 

[tigersnake]

Don't go there. You'll be labelled an anti-vaxxer.

the old 'I'm being villified' trick. You almost have a full house.

 

[tigersnake]

It is not a furfy. In your analogy those people died of a MVA ,with cancer as an associated condition. Very clear.
If you have covid but die from dementia then covid has nothing to do with it. You die of dementia.
People are dying constantly from all manner of reasons and often have multiple associated issues, be they
hypertension,heart disease, diabetes, obesity, influenza, hiv...the list is endless.
But.....to say X number of people died each day from covid and not indicating those that did not die directly from covid is misleading and in my view a typical beatup or just lack of comprehension.
This is not underplaying Omicron or covid at all. It is a search for the truth.....geez it's hard to find and that is the point I am making.
I don't know why everyone feels they must push an agenda, including posters here.
Nothing is better than the truth and honest reporting of facts.

It is a furphy. Covid has nothing to do with it if they have covid? Seriously. Its a logical fallacy. False logic. Illogical.

Following this logic, nobody ever actually dies of anything.

 

[Sintiger]

Ok so I've taken a stab at having a look at excess deaths as these aren't shown anywhere.

So I went to the ABS for historical death rates and populations. I have just looked at Victoria for the timebeing. So looking at the 3 year average before Covid, we should have around 117 deaths per day.

View attachment 14415

I then went to BDM's and they report monthly data around total deaths in Victoria. I used the reported Covid deaths for the last 3 months of 2021 and therefore worked out the Non Covid deaths from the Total deaths (from BDM's). It broadly shows we were in line with expected deaths for the 4th quarter, November is a bit of an anomaly, a bit higher. Not sure what would have caused that.

For Jan's estimate, I have taken the average non Covid deaths and added the reported deaths to 19th to it, along with an estimate for the remaining 12 days at the 7 day average of 17 deaths per day (this could rise), which would suggest that we have excess deaths in Jan of 7 (similar to November). Equivalent to about 6% above the expected mortality rate. Interesting to see the actual figures for deaths in January.

View attachment 14416

That's really interesting Mr P

One other factor in deaths during the pandemic is road deaths. In 2020-21 we had 69 less deaths on the road than 2019-20. Injuries were also well down and that is mainly because of the lockdowns. Public hospitals reported a significant reduction in TAC patient activity during lockdowns, for obvious reasons

 

[mrposhman]

That's really interesting Mr P

One other factor in deaths during the pandemic is road deaths. In 2020-21 we had 69 less deaths on the road than 2019-20. Injuries were also well down and that is mainly because of the lockdowns. Public hospitals reported a significant reduction in TAC patient activity during lockdowns, for obvious reasons

Thats a fair point. Whilst the overall numbers of deaths may be similar, there could be a distribution change from that. I'd hazard a guess at those dying from road accidents / workplace accidents etc are probably weighted towards a lower age demographic compared to Covid deaths, so that may be a pattern appearing within the data too.

 

[Brodders17]

What people "die of" is a matter for the doctor and what he/she puts on the death certificate.

People don't die of COVID, they die of the conditions that occur because they have COVID or are exacerbated by COVID. They are dying of respiratory failure or pneumonia or whatever but they would not have had those conditions if they did not have COVID , or maybe not yet. Many people who have cancer don't die of the cancer, they die of organ failure as an example, some die of cardiac arrest or other things but they die because they have cancer not of it.

There is no doubt that some people who are dying now had co-morbidities like heart problems or lung problems. Some are advanced age and their bodies can't handle what the virus does to them.

Something like 30% of the patients in ICU in Australia right now have COVID. Some may have been sick already, some may be elderly but many are not and those that aren't in those 2 categories are overwhelmingly unvaccinated because they don't have the T-cell protection that the vaccinated have. (This last piece of information is from a very senior ICU leader in this country from a meeting that I attended. ) Those 30% would mostly not be ICU if it were not from COVID, even in the peak flu season the number of patients with flu in ICU is far less than 30%.

Do you know what the deaths being reported each day relate to?
Do they reflect anyone who dies where Covid is known? Or do they only report those who they think Covid has contributed to the death?

And thanks for all the info shared in this thread.

 

[pete and tys]

It is a furphy. Covid has nothing to do with it if they have covid? Seriously. Its a logical fallacy. False logic. Illogical.

Following this logic, nobody ever actually dies of anything.

Yes... currently one in 28 people in Victoria has covid.
Hundreds of people die in Victoria every day irrespective of covid. This has always been the case.
Now, many also have covid when they die. Some of these people die of non covid reasons.
This is the point I am trying to make.
Covid can kill you directly , also indirectly as Sin has explained, but also one can die with covid but not at all due to covid.
Geez...is this so hard to understand.

 

[mrposhman]

Yes... currently one in 28 people in Victoria has covid.
Hundreds of people die in Victoria every day irrespective of covid. This has always been the case.
Now, many also have covid when they die. Some of these people die of non covid reasons.
This is the point I am trying to make.
Covid can kill you directly , also indirectly as Sin has explained, but also one can die with covid but not at all due to covid.
Geez...is this so hard to understand.

I'm not overly sure what point you are trying to make? Are you saying that you believe the coroner puts Covid as a cause of death for someone that dies in a car accident but had Covid at the time?

 

[pete and tys]

No...the media tells us how many are in hospital and ICU and who die on a daily basis, telling us the horrors of covid and the escalating disaster.
I am saying the numbers are deceiving and the media use this to their advantage.
Covid is a disasterous pandemic and many have died. I am not underselling it.
I am fed up with the blatant distortion and fear mongering ....in place of honest, truthful reporting.

In truth we are doing well in this country, despite political failures and most of the population has done exceptionally wel complying with lockdowns etc.
We deserve encouragement, positive feedback, honest reporting, truthful figures and not anxiety provoking sensationalism.

I repeat...vaccinated healthy people do extremely well and covid is little bother to them.
Aged, frail and unvaccinated are at risk.

 

[pete and tys]

Geez....I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition!

Ha ha...any Python fans out there?

 

[Sintiger]

Do you know what the deaths being reported each day relate to?
Do they reflect anyone who dies where Covid is known? Or do they only report those who they think Covid has contributed to the death?

And thanks for all the info shared in this thread.

I don’t know Brodders but I know there is a formula or definition which the doctors know about, or certainly the doctors in hospitals do.
The data on people designated as a COVID death is flagged in the standard data sent by hospitals to the Dept of Health so it can be reported. There will be a definition but I am sorry I don’t know what it is