Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Coronavirus

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
33,856
12,108
Melbourne
Beggars belief how politicians (especially) can spout such *smile* with a straight face and quite probably believe what they are saying. Gladys has become to politics what Christopher Dunsch is to neurosurgery.
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,526
14,066
News
Britain may be finally nearing the Holy Grail of herd immunity
Gloomy predictions ring hollow as 90pc of adults have Covid antibodies and the Euros may have pushed country towards nationwide protection
On July 7, a group of 122 scientists and doctors wrote a letter in The Lancet calling for Freedom Day to be delayed and accusing the Government of embarking on a “dangerous and unethical experiment”.
They warned that population immunity would not be reached in time to prevent hundreds of thousands of new infections, and called for restrictions and mask wearing to remain indefinitely.
A day later, a senior official at the World Health Organisation accused the UK of “moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity” in pressing on with reopening on July 19.
However, far from a soaring wave of infections that could pass 200,000 a day, it looks like Britain peaked at around 60,000 cases on July 15.
Although cases rose for the first time in seven days on Wednesday, infections have decreased 36 per cent in a week, with daily figures less than half of the peak.
Scientists say they are “puzzled” by the recent drop, blaming it on the heatwave, school closures, the Euros tournament ending, or a decrease in testing. It may even be the result of the “pingdemic” causing mass isolation and lowering transmission, they say, or else people are no longer being tested for fear of missing holidays.
Few straws have been left unclutched in the bid to explain the anomaly. Yet amid the bewilderment, few seem willing to consider the prospect that it is the vaccination programme which is doing most of the heavy lifting. Britain may be finally nearing the Holy Grail of herd immunity.
Latest Office for National Statistics figures suggest that nearly 92 per cent of adults now carry antibodies to coronavirus, representing about 73 per cent of the population as a whole. Large numbers of under-18s have also now been infected, and we now know that some people are naturally immune to the virus.
University College London estimates total population immunity is now at 87 per cent, although they believe the delta variant has shifted the herd immunity threshold to 93 per cent – meaning we’re not quite there yet. With a new mutating virus, the threshold can move significantly as the disease becomes more infectious.
But being close to the threshold makes it harder for the virus to transmit, even if it does not stop it entirely.
Dr David Matthews, a virologist and expert in coronaviruses from the University of Bristol, said: “In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everybody and therefore most people will have a level of immune memory – I suspect we’re very close to it.
“Assuming nothing truly spectacularly leftfield happens, then this pandemic is pretty much over for the UK. I suspect we will not see a major surge this winter, or any serious levels of fatalities.
“The more we close the gap on the last 10 per cent who haven’t had the vaccine, the better we will be. Everyone will eventually meet the virus and it is far better to do so vaccinated.”
As early as July 7, Dr Meaghan Kall, an epidemiologist at Public Health England, said the antibody data suggested age groups over 24 were “very close to herd immunity” through vaccination and previous infection.
And, paradoxically, mass mixing in the Euro 2020 tournament may also have helped push the country towards nationwide protection.
“A lot of people might be disgusted by me saying this, but ultimately the Euros might turn out to be one of the things that make the rest of the summer less stressful, as we've effectively immunised a lot more younger people who wouldn't otherwise have come for or been available for a vaccine,” said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“But I would stress that I would never suggest that as a control strategy in advance.”
Prof Karl Friston, of University College London, who believed that Britain reached herd immunity in the spring, only to lose it again with the emergence of the delta variant, said we were once again close to reaching the threshold.
“We are currently close to – but not at – herd immunity, according to real-time estimates based upon dynamic causal modelling,” he said.
“The herd immunity threshold is currently about 93 per cent but our population immunity is only 87 per cent.
“But as witnessed by the recent decline in notification rates, we do not need to reach a herd immunity threshold to bring the effective R-number below one and, in principle, suppress viral transmission.”
As always, there are caveats. The disparate nature of the epidemic means some areas could already be at herd immunity levels while others may never get there, based on localised vaccination uptake and demographics.
But it does seem that enough people are now protected that the virus is running out of steam.
We are finally reaching a point where the virus is endemic, our older population is protected, and youngsters can catch the virus safely at a time in their lives when their immune system is waiting to be primed by new diseases.
Dr Matthews added: “I’ve worked on a lot of respiratory viruses and controversially I believe this virus isn’t a killer.
“Flu kills babies and old people and it’s quite capable of killing people who have had the vaccine, but the issue here is that collectively, as a species, humans have no memory of this virus, so everyone’s immune system is starting from scratch.
“That’s ok if you’re a child but not if you’re in your 50s, 60s and 70 and relying on the memory of previous viruses.
“I think we will eventually live in a world where you will meet this virus as a kid and develop immunity early. Reaching a truce with the virus is probably where we’re heading.”
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
18,140
21,880
I still don't get why the Australian government has not engaged a marketing firm to sell the AZ vaccine to those over 60.

Currently we have had 6 deaths from circa 90 odd cases of bloodclots in Australia, when we have given 6.3m doses of AZ, so the risk of dying is a little over 1 in a million right. I suspect this only gets better once you take out those younger than 60. For comparison the UK has an average rate of 1 in 500,000 but has provided AZ to many many more younger people.

To give a comparison (and why it should be easy to sell), I have attached 2 websites, the 1st an ABC article that compares Aussie deaths. The use a micromort as a guide (which is equivalent to 1 in a million) so essentially dying due to AZ is 1 micromort, which is the equivalent of driving 400km in a car (many of us do that in a week) or 10km on a bike. A bath is about 0.3 micromorts, so essentially dying from the AZ vaccine is the equivalent of dying every 3 baths you take. If we were as scared of baths as we were of the AZ vaccine we would be a very very smelly population.


The 2nd article is from the US.


Take a look at these groups

Dying from AZ - 1 in 1,000,000
Dying from choking on food - 1 in 2,535
Dying from sunstroke - 1 in 8,248
Dying from a dog attack - 1 in 86,781
Dying from a lightening strike - 1 in 138,849

So essentially you are as likely to die from the AZ vaccine as you are to die 8 times from a lightening strike, or about 15 times from a dog attack. Are we going to stop petting dogs now?

Now clearly for younger people the risk is much higher and hence why Pfizer is advised, but when we have 25%+ of the over 60's who have yet to have a dose of AZ, then a marketing campaign should be targeted at them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

RoarEmotion

Tiger Legend
Aug 20, 2005
5,130
6,852
I still don't get why the Australian government has not engaged a marketing firm to sell the AZ vaccine to those over 60.

Currently we have had 6 deaths from circa 90 odd cases of bloodclots in Australia, when we have given 6.3m doses of AZ, so the risk of dying is a little over 1 in a million right. I suspect this only gets better once you take out those younger than 60. For comparison the UK has an average rate of 1 in 500,000 but has provided AZ to many many more younger people.

To give a comparison (and why it should be easy to sell), I have attached 2 websites, the 1st an ABC article that compares Aussie deaths. The use a micromort as a guide (which is equivalent to 1 in a million) so essentially dying due to AZ is 1 micromort, which is the equivalent of driving 400km in a car (many of us do that in a week) or 10km on a bike. A bath is about 0.3 micromorts, so essentially dying from the AZ vaccine is the equivalent of dying every 3 baths you take. If we were as scared of baths as we were of the AZ vaccine we would be a very very smelly population.


The 2nd article is from the US.


Take a look at these groups

Dying from AZ - 1 in 1,000,000
Dying from choking on food - 1 in 2,535
Dying from sunstroke - 1 in 8,248
Dying from a dog attack - 1 in 86,781
Dying from a lightening strike - 1 in 138,849

So essentially you are as likely to die from the AZ vaccine as you are to die 8 times from a lightening strike, or about 15 times from a dog attack. Are we going to stop petting dogs now?

Now clearly for younger people the risk is much higher and hence why Pfizer is advised, but when we have 25%+ of the over 60's who have yet to have a dose of AZ, then a marketing campaign should be targeted at them.
Would it be too misogynistic to have the ‘don’t be a pussy, stick it up em’ campaign? ‘Scaredy cat from Ballarat doesn’t have enough punch‘. Plus we get to subtly reinforce our Shocking hatred.

More seriously some 3D visuals showing these risks and also as a covid outbreak occurs and once we open up would be compelling. AZ should be going to almost everyone now and open up earlier.

id definitely show the risk of death to car travel growing over your life vs the one or two off risk of an AZ shot. 40000km a year is 100 Micromorts a year. maybe Same risk as dying of COVID over your lifetime most of us willingly chose.

as an aside micromort got auto spelled to Microsoft.
 

caesar

Tiger Legend
Feb 9, 2015
8,041
21,772
NSW taking the hard road under Gladys. Death by 1000 cuts & in a world of spin.
Sad & frustrating to watch. I feel for my friends & family up there caught up in it.

The whole 'we'd have thousand & thousands of cases if we hadn't locked down when we did' rhetoric is like listening to Trump.

Why hasn't one journalist in those pressers pointed to how other states in Australia have coped with the Delta variant?

 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Army called in to curb runaway Covid-19 (paywalled)

Health officials have been unable to identify the source of almost 800 Covid-19 infections in Sydney’s latest outbreak, as contract tracers struggle to keep pace with the spread of the virus and new cases reach record levels.

After case numbers jumped to 239 on Thursday, up from 177 the day before, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian called in the Australian Defence Force to help enforce compliance with lockdown measures and tightened restrictions on the eight worst-affected local government areas.

With the number of people infectious while in the community increasing, official figures show 779 Covid-19 cases remained under investigation late on Thursday, including dozens of infections stretching back a fortnight.

The source of 118 cases recorded in the first two weeks of July remains under investigation.

Among the tighter restrictions imposed by the NSW government on Thursday in the eight hardest-hit areas were mandated mask use outdoors and a 5km travel limit. Fines have been increased, and police given the power to shut non-compliant workplaces.

The rise in cases over the past week has slowed down how quickly patients were notified of their positive test results and delayed interviews by contact tracers.

Just 67 per cent of new cases were interviewed within 24 hours of officials being notified, down from 95 per cent in earlier weeks, separate NSW Health figures for the week ending July 26 show.

The data, disclosed on Thursday, also shows 84 per cent of cases were notified within a day of taking a Covid-19 test, down from 90 per cent a week earlier.

However, 58 per cent of cases were in isolation within one day of their first symptoms, up from 50 per cent a week earlier.

Ms Berejiklian said daily infections were “likely to get worse before they get better” but denied the government had not moved fast enough to contain the virus.

“There is no perfect way to deal with a pandemic and we’ve been far from perfect and I would have made that comment 18 months ago,” Ms Berejiklian said.

The ADF, first offered by the commonwealth on July 7., will send 300 personnel to assist with enforcing compliance.

Government sources said the request from NSW was for a six-week deployment, taking their possible presence in Sydney’s suburbs beyond the current lockdown end date of August 28.

NSW officials say this was done for administrative reasons, not because the lockdown could be extended into September as widely expected.

Of the new cases on Thursday, 88 had been in public while infectious. Officials were still investigating whether another 70 cases had been in public or isolating.

There were also two deaths reported: a woman in her 90s and a man in his 80s, both from Sydney’s southwest. Neither had been vaccinated; both were household contacts of known cases.

Fifty of the 54 people with Covid-19 in hospital intensive care units were unvaccinated.

In a statement, NSW Health said it was “unsurprising” that some cases remained unlinked due to the nature of the delta strain of the virus now circulating.

“A link indicates where a case may have acquired the transmission. It is not necessary to identify a link, to identify the exposure venues that a case may have visited while infectious,” it reads.

“NSW Health works to link all cases of Covid-19 to ensure there are no ‘missing’ links in chains of transmission. The spread of the delta virus means that even brief contact between two people wearing masks has resulted in spread.”

The outbreak has also taken a toll on NSW Health staff. There were 916 staff on Covid-19 leave in the fortnight to July 18, up from 225 the previous fortnight, health data shows.

“The Delta strain is a gamechanger,” Ms Berejiklian said.

Shadow Housing Minister Jason Clare says COVID-19 is "spreading faster amongst young people" because they haven't been able to "get vaccinated in the last couple of months".

She urged residents to seek vaccinations as soon as possible. She has previously said the lockdowns would not end until community infections dropped towards zero.

“Not only does vaccination reduce you going to hospital, but it also reduces how infectious you are and how much you convey the virus to others,” Ms Berejiklian said.

Cases requiring intensive care have doubled during the past week – from 23 cases to 56 – while the number of hospitals required to treat patients has increased from six to nine.

Both Ms Berejiklian and Dr Chant have in recent days begun to increase their calls for the public to take up vaccinations as soon as possible, highlighting their availability and distribution through pharmacies and mass vaccination hubs.

While NSW officials have been unwilling to nominate a vaccination threshold that would trigger eased restrictions, University of Sydney modelling has found that even if the state were to achieve a target of 40 per cent coverage by mid-September, the lockdown would need to remain in place. In NSW, 16.9 per cent of adults have had two vaccine doses, according to available statistics provided by the federal government.

The modelling, which analysed the lockdown between July 16 and July 25, found that social distancing remained at 60 per cent, well below the 80 per cent benchmark for controlling the outbreak of the Delta variant.

“Current social distancing in Greater Sydney is estimated to be up to 60 per cent from 40 per cent a fortnight ago but this is not enough to control delta sufficiently within one month,” the study found.

To reach an 80 per cent target of social distancing, four out of five people would need to drastically reduce their contact with others, and services deemed essential would have to close.

“The accelerating vaccination rollout will begin to make a difference in a few months, but at this stage a tight lockdown makes a larger impact and needs to continue,” said Mikhail Prokopenko, a researcher at the University of Sydney.

“The main takeaways are people should continue to stay at home as much as possible, minimise their interactions outside households, and get vaccinated.”

- - - - -

Do as you're told and stay home you selfish Sydney mofos before you doom the entire country!
 

Baloo

Delisted Free Agent
Nov 8, 2005
44,178
19,050
Fifty of the 54 people with Covid-19 in hospital intensive care units were unvaccinated.
There's the answer right there. Vaccinate or die.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
Jul 26, 2004
78,625
39,435
www.redbubble.com
Right on cue & not before time. The line that it affects all of us is spot on.
Unless Gladys extracts the digit & genuinely makes an effort to get on top of it, then every state will remain treading on eggshells so long as a covid ravaged NSW looms as a constant threat.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users

MB78

I can have my cake and eat it too
Sep 8, 2009
8,016
2,173


People aged between 60 to 69 really need to get a move on in getting themselves vaccinated. As you can see from the numbers the amount of people people that haven’t had a dose is not acceptable in the long term.

The head of the department giving the health advice that AZ is safe and recommended for over 60’s needs to be given the floor to explain why getting the vaccine is an excellent idea.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users

RoarEmotion

Tiger Legend
Aug 20, 2005
5,130
6,852

IanG

Tiger Legend
Sep 27, 2004
18,119
3,368
Melbourne
3 new cases all in iso all linked, plus the mystery case has now been linked to the current outbreak.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,546
26,118
I still don't get why the Australian government has not engaged a marketing firm to sell the AZ vaccine to those over 60.


I don't get why all the messaging has been brand based.

just call it a Covid vaccine, and tell people to get it ASAP.

take the *smile* label off if need be.

If someone has a heart attack and needs stents implanted, they dont go window shopping for which brand they want.

they just get a *smile* stent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4 users