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Coronavirus

pete and tys

Tiger Superstar
Feb 19, 2009
1,550
1,036
Disraeli.. "there are three kinds if lies... lies, damned lies and statistics.

You are right in that statistics demonstrate that lifestyle factors may contribute to various illnesses, but they are not the cause of the disease in the vaste majority. Statistically increase the risk, but usually not the cause.
Lung cancer and heart disease are very commonly not caused by smoking or diet or obesity.
Driving too fast can contribute to death from a road accident and statistically increases the risk , but in most cases is not the cause. Death by motor accident is very commonly not due to excessive speed.

Happy to disagree if you are and leave it at that.
 
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MB78

I can have my cake and eat it too
Sep 8, 2009
7,345
1,076
Regional lockdown chances?
Today?
I hope not. Regional Victorians have rolled up their sleeves and got themselves vaccinated at far higher rates than people in Melbourne.

In fact Melbourne as a local government are the worst in the state which is appalling.
 
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mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
11,448
8,402
UK 7 day average deaths is 138 as of 12/9.


Israel had 45 deaths on 12/9 and have a 7 day average of 25.



125 deaths was an arbitrary figure. Because I was asking the question about “what is an acceptable number of daily deaths,” and used Heart Disease and Cancer numbers as a comparison. Maybe I should have worded it better.

In the future, we will not be counting case numbers, but the amount of hospitalisations and deaths. So at what number do we think the daily death count is unacceptable and measures need to be taken to reduce it? Not to mention how this will affect/overload our hospital network. Is 25 per day acceptable? What about 50 per day? Or 100? Where do we draw the line?

You call it fearmongering, I call it being pragmatic. It wasn’t that long ago virologist Alan Baxter was predicting 200 deaths per day in NSW by the end of October. Clearly vaccine rates are kicking in and changing that, but they have still had 53 deaths in the past week. And with another 222 in ICU (and who knows how many people struggling to breathe at home), those numbers are only going up. And it will get far worse once they open up at 70%.

My point of view. An acceptable level of death is not one we should be able to determine in numbers. The numbers will be what they are. Its providing an acceptable level of prevention in order to re-open. For every activity in life, we insert prevention measures to reduce fatality levels but accept that others will die, its a fact of life unfortunately. I suspect the number that will die from Covid will shock people but they are what they are.

Our responsibility as a society is to provide prevention measures, some people that don't take those prevention measures will die and unfortunately some with a worse type of co-morbidity will also die despite having taken those prevention measures.

I'll put it another way, lets say we get to 80% vaccination levels. The UK, Israel and Canada examples all provide us with different answers. I would say as a country, our demographics / healthcare system etc probably is most similar to Canada.

So the UK's 7 day average is about 130 - That would be an equivalent of around 40 deaths / day in Australia or about 12,000 for the year
Canadas 7 day average is about 30 so would be around 20-22 in Australia, around about 6000 deaths per year
Israel is around 45 as you say so around 100 / day in Australia, so around 50,000 deaths per year

Clearly wide examples, but we need to understand the differences in each country dealing with this, but people will need to be aware that annually even with vaccination a lot of people will die. To me what is "acceptable" is the level of prevention, death is never acceptable but is inevitable and any level of prevention. Even if we had 100% of people vaccination, some will still unfortunately die from Covid-19.

What we need to determine, is at what level of prevention do we re-open and live our lives again, and the modelling therefore tells us at what level of hospital capacity do we need to provide specifically for Covid-19 and ensure that we are resourced up to that level, both from a bed perspective but also from a personnel / people resourcing perspective.
 
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Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
20,760
2,033
Melbourne
What we need to determine, is at what level of prevention do we re-open and live our lives again, and the modelling therefore tells us at what level of hospital capacity do we need to provide specifically for Covid-19 and ensure that we are resourced up to that level, both from a bed perspective but also from a personnel / people resourcing perspective.

which brings me back to the point about the Doherty Institute. They handed the federal government updated modelling last week based on case numbers in VIC and NSW. The federal government hasn’t released this to the public yet. And we all know why… At a minimum, one would hope national cabinet has seen it.
 

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
11,448
8,402
which brings me back to the point about the Doherty Institute. They handed the federal government updated modelling last week based on case numbers in VIC and NSW. The federal government hasn’t released this to the public yet. And we all know why… At a minimum, one would hope national cabinet has seen it.

I don't know where the Doherty models are getting their inputs, but I'd prefer to use real life examples like the UK, Israel and Canada to determine capacity requirements.
 
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22nd Man

Tiger Legend
Aug 29, 2011
7,531
2,356
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I hope not. Regional Victorians have rolled up their sleeves and got themselves vaccinated at far higher rates than people in Melbourne.

In fact Melbourne as a local government are the worst in the state which is appalling.
maybe we do need the MCG hub after all , which I canned as a media gimmick.
 
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caesar

Tiger Legend
Feb 9, 2015
5,202
7,258
Less and less smug comments by Dan at his pressers saying "we don't want to be like NSW", no wonder when we are tracking twice as fast as NSW at the same stage of our outbreaks :mad:

 

22nd Man

Tiger Legend
Aug 29, 2011
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2,356
Essex Heights
are vax rates starting to work in NSW?
1136 is 29 % down on peak of 1603 4 days ago.
And is lowest since 1 September
and way down on previous 7 day ave of 1,396
or is this just a one off anomaly?

Assume Gladys would be "scheduled on" if this is indeed a trend.
Come on Vic, we can get there too.
 
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Tigers of Old

Proud of our Club.
Jul 26, 2004
69,746
14,067
www.redbubble.com
Less and less smug comments by Dan at his pressers saying "we don't want to be like NSW", no wonder when we are tracking twice as fast as NSW at the same stage of our outbreaks :mad:

Don't forget where it started from.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
32,878
11,168
Melbourne
maybe we do need the MCG hub after all , which I canned as a media gimmick.
Not sure how the logistics are supposed to work with that. Where are the jabbers going to come from if they're employed elsewhere? Where is the extra vaccine going to come from? Can you show up without an appointment? Puts pressure on a lot of second doses being available in x weeks.

That's without even considering the possibility of it becoming a superspreader event.
 
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tommystigers

Don't Boo! It is hurtful to the inept and corrupt.
Oct 6, 2004
3,703
708
What the hell is wrong with Queensland? Are we not getting vaccines up here so there is no capacity to increase rates of vaccination? Or is it idiot old duffers choosing to not get vaccinated?
Along with WA, QLD needs a significant outbreak to get these morons off their butts and vaccinated. People are blasé because we have dodged bullets so often. Aside from the news you wouldn't know there was a pandemic.
Anna gets up every day and says well done Queensland. There is nothing to congratulate in such a pathetic effort.
 

22nd Man

Tiger Legend
Aug 29, 2011
7,531
2,356
Essex Heights
Not sure how the logistics are supposed to work with that. Where are the jabbers going to come from if they're employed elsewhere? Where is the extra vaccine going to come from? Can you show up without an appointment? Puts pressure on a lot of second doses being available in x weeks.

That's without even considering the possibility of it becoming a superspreader event.
it was more of a rhetorical remark, but what i didnt know was City of Mel rates were lowish, not just outer suburbs. The CBD has Jeffs Shed and Exhibition sites at least so few excuses for those residents plenty of whom are well off living on St Kilda Rd and East Melbourne and Carlton.
But any extra vax site Dan sets up has to answer all the questions you pose.
And if he is giving priority to building workers on a walk up basis must mean they are pretty confident that supplies are high enough to meet this unpredictable demand.
Super spreader event predictions are the most off the mark of any forecast in this whole pandemic.
 

22nd Man

Tiger Legend
Aug 29, 2011
7,531
2,356
Essex Heights
What the hell is wrong with Queensland? Are we not getting vaccines up here so there is no capacity to increase rates of vaccination? Or is it idiot old duffers choosing to not get vaccinated?
Along with WA, QLD needs a significant outbreak to get these morons off their butts and vaccinated. People are blasé because we have dodged bullets so often. Aside from the news you wouldn't know there was a pandemic.
Anna gets up every day and says well done Queensland. There is nothing to congratulate in such a pathetic effort.
no COVID in Qld according to Stig.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
32,878
11,168
Melbourne
it was more of a rhetorical remark, but what i didnt know was City of Mel rates were lowish, not just outer suburbs. The CBD has Jeffs Shed and Exhibition sites at least so few excuses for those residents plenty of whom are well off living on St Kilda Rd and East Melbourne and Carlton.
Guessing it's a young demographic and they're either in the queue (late joiners) or they don't want it.
 
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mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
11,448
8,402
What the hell is wrong with Queensland? Are we not getting vaccines up here so there is no capacity to increase rates of vaccination? Or is it idiot old duffers choosing to not get vaccinated?
Along with WA, QLD needs a significant outbreak to get these morons off their butts and vaccinated. People are blasé because we have dodged bullets so often. Aside from the news you wouldn't know there was a pandemic.
Anna gets up every day and says well done Queensland. There is nothing to congratulate in such a pathetic effort.

The older group (70+) are similar to the rest of the country. I think the big issue is that 50-70 group.

How big a population of indigenous peoples are there in Queensland. Its not something that is discussed much but I did see an article indicating that indigenous vaccination levels were well below others. That might explain why NT, WA and QLD have the lowest rates of vaccination in the country.

Do you guys have articles that reference vaccination rates per LGA like we do in VIC?
 
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22nd Man

Tiger Legend
Aug 29, 2011
7,531
2,356
Essex Heights
The older group (70+) are similar to the rest of the country. I think the big issue is that 50-70 group.

How big a population of indigenous peoples are there in Queensland. Its not something that is discussed much but I did see an article indicating that indigenous vaccination levels were well below others. That might explain why NT, WA and QLD have the lowest rates of vaccination in the country.

Do you guys have articles that reference vaccination rates per LGA like we do in VIC?
Christensen's McKay based electorate has second lowest rate in Aust hardly a shock
(lowest is way outback WA)