A couple of a-grade tall forwards, tall backs, and midfield bulls at this year's draft wouldn't be asking for too much, would it?
-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Once In a Generation Rebuild
- Thread starter blofield
- Start date
Agree wholeheartedly with the "go to the draft" outlook. Does that mean we continue to draft naturally or do we trade, tank, or skew the list to chase early draft picks over the next 2 drafts? The picks listed above were taken over 4 drafts:
Riewoldt (Pick 13)
Edwards (Pick 26)
Cotchin (Pick 2)
Rance (pick 18)
Martin (pick 3)
Astbury (Pick 35)
Grimes (PSD)
Only 2 of those picks are difficult to obtain (Cotchin & Martin). The other 5 players range from picks 13 to the PSD and were taken over 4 drafts. That leaves 3 main challenges to mirroring our drafting pattern from 10-15 years ago IMO:
1. Accessing top 3 draft picks within a planned timeframe
2. Finding a Jack-like KPF from outside the top 10 within that planned timeframe
3. Developing that core of 4-5 stars at the same time over many years.
Balta and Bolton are 2 young stars in core positions, but they won't be developed at the same time as the next few batches of draft picks.
Simply put, do we fight it or accept it? Do we rebuild the list by force or do we rejuvenate continuously and naturally?
By force: aim to draft 4-5 stars of similar age, but risk ending up like Carlton.
By nature: aim to draft consistently, but risk missing out on the next Cotchin & Martin and your stars will typically develop at different ages unless you're lucky with natural variation.
Personally, I'm in the "draft by nature" camp. We've drafted consistently since the Nathan Brown trade 18 years ago and it's meant we haven't shot ourselves in the foot with short-term fixes. Over-planning of a list profile would turn out like a government project planning to meet deadlines. Whereas the broader, long-term philosophy instilled around 2004 is something that might work, largely because other clubs can't help themselves from resisting the temptation of short-term fixes.
In conclusion, go to the draft. But don't rebuild by force. Rejuvenate naturally and bank on superior development, culture, and strategy. Accept the hand we're dealt. We risk missing out on the next Cotchin & Martin, but that's an endless pursuit for most clubs anyway. We already have double draft picks this year, and we kept our draft picks while on top, so it fills me with confidence to see we look primed to keep doing what the club is already doing. They've certainly earned that faith!
Alot relies on how RCD and Dow develop. If they become A-Graders quickly then our rebuild / re-set can happen quickly. If they are busts then we've pretty much wasted 2 drafts unless players like Martyn, Ross, Cumberland etc can right the ship.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
So from the previous 3 drafts we have;
RCD
Ross
Dow
Cumberland
Martyn
Ralphsmith
Nyuon
Ryan
Rioli
All have played senior footy excluding Nyoun and Cumberland. Thats the core right there. None stand out as A Grade quality but they still have time on their side. But most if not all would want regular senior games next year.
RCD
Ross
Dow
Cumberland
Martyn
Ralphsmith
Nyuon
Ryan
Rioli
All have played senior footy excluding Nyoun and Cumberland. Thats the core right there. None stand out as A Grade quality but they still have time on their side. But most if not all would want regular senior games next year.
Most of these players have had less than 10 games. The only one I would say we actually have a handle on is Ross (24 games) and he is clearly not quite making it at the moment unfortunately.
The rest need more time and more games.
To my way of thinking they all look decent prospects. Not like very early draft picks where they can come in and play in their first year, but with some development could make it.
DS
The lack of VFL has been a big issue. Little to no continuity in their football. Which makes it very hard to pass judgement on any of those kids right now.
This week is a great opportunity for them to all play.
I'm certainly not in the full rebuild viewpoint.
I'd be happy for us to attempt to stay up at the top whilst building for the future. If Matt Crouch doesn't want to stay at Adelaide, I'd be after him as a FA. Our biggest issue this year with the rule changes, has been controlling territory, so someone that can come in immediately and help us win clearances, which should then help us to control territory better.
We still have a strong side and will rebound next year, I'm 100% sure that will happen.
Imagine if we can do something like the below.
- Free agency for Crouch - addresses immediate need
- Draft best available with our 1st (likely a top 10 mid)
- Draft 2-3 talls with our 2nd 1st and our 2 2nds. There sounds like there will be a number around at that level, JVR, Amiss, Williams and a number of others, hopefully at both ends
- Best available out of whats left with our 3rds.
If our strategy to go again works out, then we will have our developing talls working away, our new mid gets a year or so playing with our best mids
If it fails and we don't win another flag, our tall structure at both ends is already developing. and then if we fall down the list and get higher draft picks (top 5) then we add in those top tier mids that will drag us back up the ladder.
I think with already having Balta and CJ (and with Ryan in the 2'd looking like he could be good) then with a couple of good draft picks this year, we could have the next tall group coming through, so bookends could be in place.
If we therefore did fall down the ladder, I doubt it would be for long.
We are in a really good position where we are at the moment.
The above doesn't even look at our kids (that some have already written off), who hopefully will come on. I have high hopes for Dow and Hugo and think Martyn and Cumberland could be good players for us going forward. RCD could go either way for me.
I'd be happy for us to attempt to stay up at the top whilst building for the future. If Matt Crouch doesn't want to stay at Adelaide, I'd be after him as a FA. Our biggest issue this year with the rule changes, has been controlling territory, so someone that can come in immediately and help us win clearances, which should then help us to control territory better.
We still have a strong side and will rebound next year, I'm 100% sure that will happen.
Imagine if we can do something like the below.
- Free agency for Crouch - addresses immediate need
- Draft best available with our 1st (likely a top 10 mid)
- Draft 2-3 talls with our 2nd 1st and our 2 2nds. There sounds like there will be a number around at that level, JVR, Amiss, Williams and a number of others, hopefully at both ends
- Best available out of whats left with our 3rds.
If our strategy to go again works out, then we will have our developing talls working away, our new mid gets a year or so playing with our best mids
If it fails and we don't win another flag, our tall structure at both ends is already developing. and then if we fall down the list and get higher draft picks (top 5) then we add in those top tier mids that will drag us back up the ladder.
I think with already having Balta and CJ (and with Ryan in the 2'd looking like he could be good) then with a couple of good draft picks this year, we could have the next tall group coming through, so bookends could be in place.
If we therefore did fall down the ladder, I doubt it would be for long.
We are in a really good position where we are at the moment.
The above doesn't even look at our kids (that some have already written off), who hopefully will come on. I have high hopes for Dow and Hugo and think Martyn and Cumberland could be good players for us going forward. RCD could go either way for me.
'Short rebuild or try to spring back immediately': Their reign over, Richmond stand at a fork in the road
The king is dead. Long live the king. Richmond was mercilessly whipped by Greater Western Sydney last Friday night, officially signalling the end of…
www.theroar.com.au
Another view - if Hardwick can squeeze one more from his senior stars he will be the best.
I am very bullish with our mix of young players and mid tier - Prestia, Nank, Vlas etc that we can be there abouts but I just can’t see us making the pinnacle again with this squad.
One reason and not the only one is they have the best draw in the league. Only club in Vic with a ‘true’ home ground advantage. All other Vic teams play home games at neutral venues. Then if you compare them with any other interstate teams with strong home ground advantages, Geesook don’t have the travel burden that the interstate teams have as they only have the drive up the highway when playing other Vic teams.
This is why Salty always wanted to play us at the bowling alley.
Yeah I dunno. Maybe. I don’t put much in it. St Kilda, South Melbourne etc were all *smile* when they all had their own home grounds too - albeit back in the 80’s. Geecheat had theirs and they were up and down themselves. Think they’re just a good club. Can’t stand them but you’ve gotta hand it to them regardless.
If we were to recruit another top 3 player like a Danger in his prime who could play for us for 6 to 8 years and be a Dusty replacement we would continually contend for the next decade.
Remember they had Ablett before Danger and also have had Selwood and Hawkins over the last decade - it’s how you build a premiership contending team - we did it with our big 4 in 2017. We need to replace at least 2 of those 4 - Balta maybe the answer to Rance but otherwise can’t see where we will get a Jack, Dusty or Cotch replacement from.
Remember they had Ablett before Danger and also have had Selwood and Hawkins over the last decade - it’s how you build a premiership contending team - we did it with our big 4 in 2017. We need to replace at least 2 of those 4 - Balta maybe the answer to Rance but otherwise can’t see where we will get a Jack, Dusty or Cotch replacement from.
no doubt they are a good club, but cant deny their home ground advantage & getting to play the shitter teams there the majority of the time.
They were also lucky to get their father sons for basically zilch.
Ablett - Pick 40 in 2001
Hawkins - Pick 41 in 2006
Scarlett - Pick 45 in 1997
Blake - Pick 38 in 2003
