Once In a Generation Rebuild

[Ridley]

Yeah I dunno. Maybe. I don’t put much in it. St Kilda, South Melbourne etc were all *smile* when they all had their own home grounds too - albeit back in the 80’s. Geecheat had theirs and they were up and down themselves. Think they’re just a good club. Can’t stand them but you’ve gotta hand it to them regardless.

One thing that Geethrow has done well in recent times is attract high quality players from other clubs. They have a unique selling point in that you can live in a small city that has most of the benefits of being in a big crowded city but without the hassle. These guys can play AFL footy but live on the beach at Torquay or Ocean Grove or Barwon Heads etc. Melbourne is just an hour up the road. It's allowed them to get Stagerfield, Cameron, Rohan, Henderson, Tuohy and Smith to name a few.

That said I don't think their recruiting of young players has been great of recent times but like us they haven't had access to high end picks. They now have a lot of their top players well past 30 so you'd think they'd really have to win it this year. They also get a decent amount of luck in that most of their top players don't miss a lot of footy; unlike what we've been through the past 3 seasons. We managed to overcome it in 2019 & 2020 but this season was a bridge too far.

There is no doubt they are a very well run club and they do a lot right. Still, I'd rather be us than them over the past 10 seasons. Time will tell who's best placed in the next 10.

 

[Redford]

no doubt they are a good club, but cant deny their home ground advantage & getting to play the shitter teams there the majority of the time.

They were also lucky to get their father sons for basically zilch.

Ablett - Pick 40 in 2001
Hawkins - Pick 41 in 2006
Scarlett - Pick 45 in 1997
Blake - Pick 38 in 2003

Yeah I dunno. I don’t hold to the 14 years of luck theory Tazmond. You could argue they’re regional and nobody wants to play there and any amount of other offsets.

Think they just do something better than most. I hear they always remain very tight as a group, reckon they have a “way” of doing things like we like to think about Richmond, big community focus, and Cook has been a lynchpin - turned them around financially, developed the Bathtub into a 40,000 seat stadium etc. And Wells...'wells' we know his record too. They just do a lot of things right. Other clubs could learn a lot from them.

Somebody just beat them.

 

[Ian4]

Houli 34 - should retire in 2021
Riewoldt 33.5 - should retire in 2022.
Edwards 33.5 - should retire in 2023
Cotchin 32 - should retire in 2022.
Martin 31 - reckon he will push for 400 games. 6-7 years left in him.
Grimes 31 - has 3 good years left in him.
Astbury 31 - retired.
Lambert 30.5 - late bloomer, fitness freak. could play til mid-30's
Pickett 30.5 - late bloomer, could also play another 3 years.
Caddy 29.75 - trade if possible.
Lynch 29.5 - At his peak.
Prestia 29.5 - At his peak
Broad 29 - at his peak.
Mcintosh 28 - at his peak
Vlastuin 28 - at his peak
Nankervis 27.5 - at his peak

What you don’t mention in your post are the youth coming though to compliment who we already have. Baker, Short is coming into his peak, Rioli has reinvigorated himself in a new position, Balta, RCD, Dow, Bolton, Graham, Stack, Ralphsmith. not to mention our draft hand this year.

i can't see anything less than us fighting for the premiership in 2022.

 

[TigerFurious]

How do Geecheat do it ? They haven’t fallen away since 2007. One year they missed the 8 ? Two ?

And here they are again, contending. As much as I wish they would, they never drop off the cliff.

Good question.

I think their results are inflated by their home ground advantage. I believe it’s worth an extra two wins a season to them which is enough to push them from top eight to top four. Their crap finals record supports this.

They have killed it with free agency. Got Dangerfield in his absolute prime (I know they traded for him but still) plus a bunch of other support players to come in and play vital roles.

Have had the likes of Hawkins and Selwood carry significant loads for the last decade.

Recruiting has been good (but not great) which has allowed them to again continually refresh their list.

As much of a *smile* as Scott is, he can coach and coach well. His teams are disciplined, skilled and ruthless. The GFC is also a good organization that works well and has everyone pulling in the same direction.

 

[achillesjones]

Lack of height in what has increasingly become a marking game.

 

[blofield]

What you don’t mention in your post are the youth coming though to compliment who we already have. Baker, Short is coming into his peak, Rioli has reinvigorated himself in a new position, Balta, RCD, Dow, Bolton, Graham, Stack, Ralphsmith. not to mention our draft hand this year.

i can't see anything less than us fighting for the premiership in 2022.

Short's been a shadow of himself this year - despite him being at his "peak". Baker's disposal at times this year has been woeful.

Graham goes missing in action every 2nd/3rd week. Likewise Bolton.

Take Cotchin/Riewoldt/Martin out of the team for a certain number of games and the lack of leadership at a senior level is really exposed.

Rioli has been a revelation and reincarnated as a running half back this year and Stack has shown his enormous ability at times. Stack's performance has been extraordinary given where he was mentally/physically earlier in the year.

RCD will be on thin ice next year - close to delisting - if he doesn't take the necessary steps in certain areas of his game.

Dow is promising but no guarantee to make it. Ralphsmith looks the most likely to make it IMO.

Overall the youth cupboard is bare. Nothing down back or up forward. To say that those drafted this year will have an impact next year is being way too optimistic.

Having access next year to a long full pre-season for our entire list - is the one factor that could see improvement in our performance next year.

I also acknowledge the lack of VFL games due to CoVid has impacted severely on the development of the draftees of the past 2 years. But that applies to every other team.

Another positive is the freeing up of salary cap space through the vast number of retirements that will occur in the next few years - this will enable the club to peruse quality free agents.

However other teams improve too. Teams that have had access to superior young talent in the last 5 years.

Meaning it's not just the decline in our list that will affect our overall ladder position.

 

[Macca68]

Short's been a shadow of himself this year - despite him being at his "peak". Baker's disposal at times this year has been woeful.

Graham goes missing in action every 2nd/3rd week. Likewise Bolton.

Take Cotchin/Riewoldt/Martin out of the team for a certain number of games and the lack of leadership at a senior level is really exposed.

Rioli has been a revelation and reincarnated as a running half back this year and Stack has shown his enormous ability at times. Stack's performance has been extraordinary given where he was mentally/physically earlier in the year.

RCD will be on thin ice next year - close to delisting - if he doesn't take the necessary steps in certain areas of his game.

Dow is promising but no guarantee to make it. Ralphsmith looks the most likely to make it IMO.

Overall the youth cupboard is bare. Nothing down back or up forward. To say that those drafted this year will have an impact next year is being way too optimistic.

Having access next year to a long full pre-season for our entire list - is the one factor that could see improvement in our performance next year.

I also acknowledge the lack of VFL games due to CoVid has impacted severely on the development of the draftees of the past 2 years. But that applies to every other team.

Another positive is the freeing up of salary cap space through the vast number of retirements that will occur in the next few years - this will enable the club to peruse quality free agents.

However other teams improve too. Teams that have had access to superior young talent in the last 5 years.

Meaning it's not just the decline in our list that will affect our overall ladder position.

Great summary Blofield. Agree with most of this.

Another interesting one is Jack Ross - he should have really shown some progress this year especially with all the injuries to our mids etc. But hasn't at all. Might have even had his card marked by the club. Interesting to watch his situation over the next couple of months.

 

[tigerhalsey]

Lack of height in what has increasingly become a marking game.

This has been my worry for a while now, lynch and jack pretty much our only contested mark beasts. Lynch playing like crap and jack slowing down has not helped and if they are injured aint much else.
Nank is a good mark helping out the backline but even he has been injured. 3 out of 44 players or something is not a good balance.
If only Chol would have realised his marking potential

 

[mrposhman]

This has been my worry for a while now, lynch and jack pretty much our only contested mark beasts. Lynch playing like crap and jack slowing down has not helped and if they are injured aint much else.
Nank is a good mark helping out the backline but even he has been injured. 3 out of 44 players or something is not a good balance.
If only Chol would have realised his marking potential

You don't think Balta is a good contested mark?

 

[mrposhman]

I don't think we are in as bad a condition as some make out. I like to look at things in 5 year blocks.



Left is what I would think is our best 22 right now (allowing for Astbury / Houli having retired). Table on the right is the same team with 5 years added to their ages (as of right now). I know everyone is worried about our defence but if you look at what our defence should be in 5 years time, its not a whole lot different. Sure we need another tall in there, but its not the disaster that some seem to think.

Our midfield and forward line will be decimated though, with only Baker, Bolton and Graham certain to survive (George who knows where he will be).

This is the next group with their ages in 5 years. I've marked in green those who I think will make good players. I may be a bit harsh on Ross and RCD on this list.



People seem very keen to just writeoff our kids. Many other clubs have been able to give kids more responsibility with their games due to competed lower down the ladder, we haven't had that, and we have tended to side with the premiership group over playing some of our kids and giving them responsibility in games.

If you just look at the number of games these guys have played its very low. These guys could still be anything, in the first 25 games generally you are just looking for signs and IMO there is enough there with a lot of these players to suggest that they will be good players for us.




This whole "the cupboard is bare" thing being stated as fact is far from that. We just don't know where these players could end up.

The 1 thing we do know, is due to lack of ability to draft top 10 picks (as we've been off winning premierships), it is hard to see where the next Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin etc is coming from, but that can be developed as we go. Nail a couple of drafts, get games into some of these kids and get a couple of well timed FA's (like Lynch, we would not have won the 2019 premiership without him) and I think some of you guys may well have egg on your faces (or at least I hope you will).

 

[year of the tiger]

Posh - step outside please - how dare you put a line through Dusty - at 35 he will be just entering his prime……

 

[mrposhman]

Posh - step outside please - how dare you put a line through Dusty - at 35 he will be just entering his prime……

I see the error of my ways. Gods are immortal.

I will now repeatedly punch myself in the face as punishment.

 

[achillesjones]

It would be simple for a opposing coach to plan for a Short, Vlaustin and Rioli half back line. Play marking strength against us and we are as stuffed as we have been in the second half of the year.

 

[mrposhman]

It would be simple for a opposing coach to plan for a Short, Vlaustin and Rioli half back line. Play marking strength against us and we are as stuffed as we have been in the second half of the year.

Why? Its the same setup we've always had. The change has been with Mansell coming in and replacing one of our talls (Astbury, Broad or Balta).

Do you think Rioli is significantly weaker defensively than Houli?

 

[achillesjones]

Yep. By a country mile.
Daniel is a forward, born and bred. And a beauty.
Houli is a champion half back.
No comparison.