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Richmond's next trade strategies - great article from The Roar
- Thread starter AngryAnt
- Start date
There is no way I would be moving the 17-20 version of Cotch out of the centre square on GF day.
You avoid my point that 2023 Taranto would be picked in the midfield ahead of (any era) Graham for any grand final ever. There's your onball/midfield sorted.
Saying that retrospectively Graham had one of the best games of his career is besides the point.
On this. Was going to post those up but you saved Leysy the time.
Those numbers shouldn't be glossed over, nor down played.
They show what we see on the ground, he is absolutely elite in impacting the contest.
Basically there is no-one better in the league at either winning the ball, or if he doesn't, defensively impacting the opposition. Exactly what you want.
As mentioned he does this by running, competing, running, competing and running again.
Fantastic footballer.
All that tells me is that the coaches rate 9 players better than TT. Nine I tell ya!
We could have a discussion about the team structure requiring Graham vs Taranto but the fact we are debating the last spot in the midfield is really the point.
The coach's votes are a different issue as well. No-one disputes Taranto is a good player and is having a good year.
But he is having a good year in a crap team. Can he be the key midfielder in a good team? Coach's votes don't tell me that, do you think you can build a premiership midfield around Zac Merritt? Jordan Dawson? Jack Sinclair?
It's worth asking why we are where we are this year. What makes us a poor side at the moment?
Statistically our worst areas are:
Kicking efficiency: AFL 17th
Clangers: AFL 18th
Clangers per disposal: AFL 18th
Turnovers: AFL 18th
Disposals per turnovers: AFL 18th
Centre clearances: AFL 17th
Total clearances: AFL 18th
Scoring shots per inside 50: AFL 16th
It's essentially ball use and midfield, and you could debate if forward efficiency is a product of structure or delivery, but personally I see it as more of a delivery issue more often than not.
Then you look at what we do well:
Rebound 50s: AFL 1st
Metres gained: AFL 1st
Metres/disposal: AFL 1st
Intercept possessions: AFL 2nd
Intercept marks: AFL 4th
Offensive 1 v 1: AFL 2nd
Defensive 1 v 1: AFL 2nd
Spoils: AFL 1st
Hitouts to advantage: AFL 4th
Hitouts to advantage %: AFL 1st
Bounces: AFL 2nd
1%ers: AFL 2nd
So there's an awful lot of good there, defensive markers are excellent and the run and gun game is still there. We are a top 8 team for points for and points against, even with the efficiency issues.
It is being undone by ball use, losing first possession and not getting quality ball into the forward 50 enough times.
I don't have the stats on it but I'll bet we are being killed on scores from turnover, scores from clearance and scores from centre clearance. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the team giving the most opportunities will concede more scores after all.
The reason we are no good at the moment isn't a backline issue, and it's only a little bit of a forward line issue.
It's a midfield issue. And our best midfielder is contributing enormously to the things that are hurting us.
I defy anyone to read that and disagree with my initial point. Taranto is a good player but if we think we are building a premiership midfield around him we better think again.
By the way, it would be disingenuous not to point out a lot of those markers were similar in our premiership years, especially in terms of ball use and clearances.
The big difference is the change relative to the opposition. For example in 2017 we were -3.8 vs oppositions in turnovers, now we are +1.1, meaning we are almost 5 turnovers a game worse off. 2018 we were -8.3, 2019 -2.5 and 2020 -2.
In 2017 we were -.8 vs opposition in clearance, now we are -4.1. 2018 we were -5.3, 2019 -4.7 and 2020 -3.6.
Clearances look similar on face value but it is distorted by us always giving the outnumber at stoppage to have plus 1 back. So all our clearance loses would occur around the ground, when it was 4 v 4 in the centre we were fine.
If you take the centre clearance numbers we are -2.8 this year, 0 in 2020, -.3 in 2019, -.8 in 2018 and +1.6 in 2017. Remind me again why we recruited Taranto and Hopper?
Which again points to our midfield not being of sufficient quality, what used to be weaknesses we could counteract with our strengths are now beyond that point.
The big difference is the change relative to the opposition. For example in 2017 we were -3.8 vs oppositions in turnovers, now we are +1.1, meaning we are almost 5 turnovers a game worse off. 2018 we were -8.3, 2019 -2.5 and 2020 -2.
In 2017 we were -.8 vs opposition in clearance, now we are -4.1. 2018 we were -5.3, 2019 -4.7 and 2020 -3.6.
Clearances look similar on face value but it is distorted by us always giving the outnumber at stoppage to have plus 1 back. So all our clearance loses would occur around the ground, when it was 4 v 4 in the centre we were fine.
If you take the centre clearance numbers we are -2.8 this year, 0 in 2020, -.3 in 2019, -.8 in 2018 and +1.6 in 2017. Remind me again why we recruited Taranto and Hopper?
Which again points to our midfield not being of sufficient quality, what used to be weaknesses we could counteract with our strengths are now beyond that point.
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Love these stats. I would come more to who is making the most errors in our team when we have time and space. These are the most damaging turnovers imo that lead to goals against regularly.
Balta
Kmac
Grimes
Ralphsmith
Are the first four that come to mind for me (2023 only) None of them did this on the weekend and we looked a lot better. And I’m talking as a percentage vs an absolute.
Even vlaustin early was doing this too. Taranto maybe after all of this group.
Dumb 50s would have made my 2022 list but we seemed to have tidied that up.
Also missed sitters as much of a problem as the turnover. Bolton and Martin on this list.
Think you are slightly off mark between cause and correlation.
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yes good stats Huge Calf Out Of Richardson. I'm surprised how well we are doing in many of these areas, unsurprised by our poorer areas as that is pretty apparent even to a nuffie like myself. But it does gel with my intuition that we are not that far off - I have whinged about losing close games, but it is a tell that we are always competitive and our bad is just slightly outweighing our good here. It also tells me that with a fit Lynch up forward we'd be in the 8, if not top four, but hey, it is what it is.
Our problems right now are forward structure, no Lynch obviously and no small forwards really stepping up - we are also suffering on defensive pressure coming out of the forward line which hurts our midfield again. Cumbo/Mansell/Rioli Jr etc haven't quite made the position their own yet. And yes, we bomb into the forward line - suprisingly maybe Ross is the one who consistently lowers the eyes and sets up good balls for leading or loose forwards.
Clarke had a great game, maybe he's also a midfield/wing option as he gets stronger? He's got the pace, skills and smarts - just needs tank and body size.
On Taranto, we'll have to disagree to disagree - if you are arguing that he's not as good as Cotchin/Dusty/Prestia in 2017 then sure, OK, but that's a pretty high bar. I think you overstate the midfield needs too - you say we need three or four more blue chip mids - I'd argue fit Hopper/Taranto/Bolton are the core (ok Hopper has to show some more after injury) and then you'd need someone else to step up to Lambert levels, then you have your role players like Grigg/Graham. We also have Dusty/Prestia - Prestia is showing signs of coming good again, Dusty still has two good years. But OK, if realistically we are looking say 3-4 years off then we need replacements for Dusty/Prestia, and a Lynch replacement. Backline looks good for the next five years.
A couple more big trades/FAs this year and next and we are right back in it.
Disposals per turnover: Balta 3.3 (Richmond 6th), Grimes 3.7 (Richmond 7th), McIntosh 3.9 (Richmond 8th), Ralphsmith 4.9 (Richmond 16th).
I guess I'm arguing that our entire midfield isn't at the level of a premiership capable one, either in reality or in potential and needs a complete overhaul via the draft. If we don't get that right, no overhaul will make a difference.
In Taranto's case I think he has chronic weaknesses in his game that are going to prevent him ever being at that level. Like I said if you take away the theatrics, the essence of what Cornes is saying is right. He's a good player but when you really drill down his impact on the team is greatly reduced by his deficiencies and may well be into negative territory.
Nice work.
It's a different stat I'm after.
The one where the player is pretty much on their own, have a team mate in space and just gives it to the opposition under little to no pressure. Almost always concedes a goal.
Balta has had 3 or 4 - all lead to goals. Sydney and Suns come to mind. He centred it beautifully to King against the suns.
Grimes probably same - all lead to goals
Ralphsmith would be more but usually as an i50 entry.
Kmac had some shockers - against Essendon cost us the game where he had I think Mansell short and two other options and just kicked it straight to the one Essendon player then went out the back where I think Grimes got that *smile* bounce.
When your percentage is 100 then this is a 2-3 win difference as the margins are tiny.
Richmond killing Richmond to quote a former coach.
Haven't got the depth of stats for that I'm afraid, best I could do is match the contested possession percentage to give a loose idea.
For example Balta (44) and Grimes (51) have a high percentage of contested possessions so more chance they are coughing up the ball under pressure than McIntosh (24) or Ralphsmith (32) who are getting it far more often under no pressure.
Yep I don't think they are out there for public consumption.
So this is more what has stuck in my head - so more emotional/observational - or when I'm sitting on the AFL members wing seeing the four options Kmac/Ralphsmith have and the opposition player they kick it to. Prestia in tight has also been very bad this year at least relative to what he has put out every other year - handpassing directly to opposition.
I find Taranto has more 50:50 random balls where he just bangs it on the boot vs spotting up an opposition player while we are out of position - its usually a kick forward and where we have numbers on the ball - so I feel his turnovers don't hurt as much as some of the other ones and our forwards have started to adjust to his style too and play more in front.
Martin's and Bolton's goal kicking has also killed us. Jack has been hot and cold.
Tarantos goal kicking has been way above my expectations, and even Cotchin this year has seemed to have finished pretty well.
I can accept that Taranto is not Dustin Martin, or even Prestia, but your contention that he's actually a liability for a team is a step - actually a mile - too far.
He would not possibly be 9th on the coaches votes tally if his errors really outweigh the good things he does - if there is one thing coaches know about, they know all about which player errors cost goals or opportunities.
This is where I differ from a lot here.
When we got Taranto (and Hopper) I was not expecting a lot for the first half of the year.
It takes at least that long to get used to your new teammates.
You need that long to instinctively understand how your mates play.
If it's Cumberland he plays outside and back so if you're slapping the ball on your boot that's where you aim - outside and deep.
If it's Graham it's inside and short.
That's coming and as said, the goalkicking is a huge plus.
As for the other issue of getting players we have the huge advantage of playing in front of big crowds at the G.
We also have a big pot of salary cap to play with in the next couple of years.
If Cotchin and Riewoldt both finish this year that is about a $1 million to spend.
If Martin and Prestia go next year that is another $2 million to spend.
Yes, people forget it wasn’t til late July 2017 that Prestia started to play good footy.
It would be interesting to know clearance stats in games Nank/Soldo have played v ones they haven't, and possibly clearance starts after half time in games Ryan has been our no1 ruck.
Taranto is ranked high in score involvements, so he must be doing something right.
