The old adage springs to mind, "things are never as good or as bad as they seem".
We're at the end of the club's most successful cycle since the late 60s to early 80s. Champions of the club will likely depart at the end of this season (Cotchin, Edwards, Riewoldt, Martin (?)) who are irreplaceable. That's potentially more than 1000+ games of AFL experience out the door in one off-season. What does this mean given where we find ourselves now? A few thoughts (Rather meandering and long-winded but humour me):
1. Rebuilds, or re-tooling on the fly are hard. Very few, if any clubs, are able to do them while remaining competitive. Geelong the noticeable exception. We look to have recognised this, by looking to hit the draft hard in 2021, and again in 2022. I think the more optimistic comparison (albeit without the added benefit of the Academy) is Sydney. Stockpile picks as many picks as possible in the top 30, and keep getting them through the door.
2. What becomes of our middle class? People focus on the top end of talent we've had from 2017-2020 (really 2013-2020) and rightfully so. Martin, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt, Lynch, Prestia, Grimes, Edwards, and Vlastuin have been elite footballers for a long time. Elite footballers win you finals and win you flags. But your middle class of players is what gets you to finals. The club needs to think long and hard about some of these players now and whether it takes some short term pain in getting the best deal for them. Baker, Graham, Short, Rioli, Lambert, Broad, Soldo, Castagna, McIntosh, Pickett. There's still some value there, but if these players aren't going to become elite, then the club needs to make some tough calls imo. Rioli, Short and Baker all stand out in that regard. Could we get an additional first round pick by letting Short or Rioli go? Has to be considered.
3. The rule changes. Too much complaining has been done on here and elsewhere, by supporters and the club alike in this regard. We all know that the rule changes were done deliberately, and had our gameplan in mind. Hocking admitted as much. You know what, so what? Like I said in the match thread for Adelaide, "adapt or die" and we haven't adapted and continue to be penalised for it. The rules aren't changing, so what use is it complaining? The gameplan needs to be changed to better fit within the current rules. Given the emphasis on footskills from our last draft, it looks as though the club is aware of this.
4. The coaching structure has seen a real brain drain since the halcyon days. Caracella, Rutten, McRae, Leppitsch. That is a rockstar coaching panel. Either former senior coaches or current senior coaches / caretakers. Apart from Kingsley, there's a lot of inexperience in our current coaching panel. I don't think Teague has done poorly with the forward line, but the jury is out still. If I was Andrew McQualter I would be pretty nervous. The midfield, while being undermanned has been consistently average to terrible this season.
5. Circling back to point 1, looking at our current list, who are our young players with the potential to be elite based on what they have currently shown? Balta, Gibcus and Bolton imo. This is what happens when you have relatively consistent success, you don't shop at the top tier of the draft. We have done very well to net Balta and Bolton in the 20s. Gibcus is our first top 10 pick since Vlastuin. Martin, Cotchin, Lynch, Edwards, Rance, Prestia, Vlastuin were all first rounders or close to it. That's a spine and that's what we need to be focused on. Balta, Gibcus and Bolton is a pretty good start, but we need another 3 or 4 guys who then become elite and hope that the 3 aforementioned all kick on further.
6. Perhaps most worryingly, there seem to be a number of younger players on the list who seem to be at a crossroads, either based on what they have shown at AFL, or by their continued omission at AFL level. Dimma is often accused of playing favourites. I think this is one of the bigger misconceptions about him. He's shown that if a young player is up to it, they will be played. Butler, Castagna, Short, Rioli, Baker, Gibcus, Balta, Bolton, Higgins etc. were all played and played relatively early. Why? Because they showed they were up to the level. Stack, RCD, CCJ, Chol etc. haven't played consistently at AFL level. Why? Because they're likely not up to it for a variety of reasons, be it talent, temperament, consistency or other flaws. I'm happy for the coaches and list management to make these decisions, but I feel like we are approaching a stage where we need to know for sure whether guys such as Stack, RCD, Martyn, Dow, Cumberland, Nyuon, Miller etc. can do it or not and this is probably as good a season as any to find out.
7. Finally, I think there's probably a worthwhile discussion to have on the coach. O'Neal is leaving, Gale may leave, Balme probably does not have many years left. Much like the assistant coach ranks, another possibly massive brain drain. Where does that leave Dimma? Personally, 10+ years in the same job is a long time for anyone, and it's natural that people get stale or insular in their thinking. The world has changed since the days of Sheedy or Sir Alex Ferguson. Is Dimma the man to lead a rebuild? I don't know, but he certainly deserves a chance to. However, I would suggest that he needs a fresh batch of assistants with new ideas to give him the best chance.
So the point of the above tome? Some stuff to be concerned about, but some stuff to be thankful for.
Loved Tarrant's arrival by the way (obvious exception to the kids rule), keeps our structure, not too expensive and releases Balta from standing in the defensive goal square. Structure and maintaining the competitiveness and professionalism of the playing group (think Kane Johnson), is the only reason to bring in older players now.
