Laff and Diggler. No-one turns up at the caravan park in September these days.Sounds good Tigaman, but who books holidays in September these days??
Laff and Diggler. No-one turns up at the caravan park in September these days.Sounds good Tigaman, but who books holidays in September these days??
Hear! Hear!Laff and Diggler. No-one turns up at the caravan park in September these days.
Really miss their hilarious input since 2017.......Laff and Diggler. No-one turns up at the caravan park in September these days.
Laff and Diggler. No-one turns up at the caravan park in September these days.
Crazy season. Depending on results next game, it could go into the last round with Essendon in 7th on 44 points and 6 other teams on 40 points (all except 1 with a higher percentage than Essendon). Personally though I am hoping Cats beat Lions, we beat Eagles, Adelaide beat Pies and we can then go into the last round against Lions with 4th guaranteed against Cats at the MCG if we lose to them and giving players who need it easier games to be in tip top shape for the first final. That's my ideal scenario as I don't really want us to have to go to Perth or Brisbane.
I don't think the 2016 result should be treated as an outlier. It was one year out of only 18 under that finals system, so a 6% chance.I’m doing a mini research report into winning a GF.
Teams have travelled interstate for a final since 2009.
61 finals.
Travelling team has won 5 times.
Home team has won 56 times.
In 4 out of those 5 times the away team has won the premiership.
2 of those win were in the same year by the same club: Western Bulldogs 2016.
2018 GF - WCE d Coll
2016 - EF WBD d GWS
PF WBD d WCE
2015. SF Nth d Syd
2012, GF Sydney d Hawks
And in the last 20 years the premier has finished either 1,2, or 3, except once (western bulldogs 2016).
In 2016 the western bulldogs finished 7th and won two interstate finals. However they were the home team in the GF opposed to an interstate opponent. That occurrence was statistically ridiculous and the outcome has not occurred twice and therefore should be treated as an outlier and removed.
If a team plays an interstate final then they are less likely to win but if they do win they are more likely to win the premiership. Especially if it’s on GF day.
Furthermore if that team finished 1, 2 or 3 they are much more likely to win the premiership.
So your chances of winning the premiership are much higher if you finish 1, 2, or 3 and play finals at home against teams from interstate.
This isn’t groundbreaking information and it’s not evaluated all variables but it’s good to see the cases that lead to the conclusions.
I just believe ten years gives a good snap shot of relevancy. If you go back beyond that time you end up looking at many different variables you need to explain. Especially for a fan forum.I don't think the 2016 result should be treated as an outlier. It was one year out of only 18 under that finals system, so a 6% chance.
The earliest interstate final I could find was 1986. From then until 2008 the visiting side won about 42 out of 112 finals (including grand finals) so a little bit better for them than the last 10 years you researched. 9 of the visiting teams won grand finals.
Really miss their hilarious input since 2017.......
Crazy season. Depending on results next game, it could go into the last round with Essendon in 7th on 44 points and 6 other teams on 40 points (all except 1 with a higher percentage than Essendon). Personally though I am hoping Cats beat Lions, we beat Eagles, Adelaide beat Pies and we can then go into the last round against Lions with 4th guaranteed against Cats at the MCG if we lose to them and giving players who need it easier games to be in tip top shape for the first final. That's my ideal scenario as I don't really want us to have to go to Perth or Brisbane.
But i disagree re lions v Cats. I would rather Brisbane finish second over the eagles and that will happen if we beat the Eagles, Brisbane beat the Cats and Geelong beat Carlton in R23.
The above would mean Brisbane end up on top of the ladder (assuming we then threw our game against them in Rd 23) and we'd have to play in Brisbane. I'd prefer to play Geelong at the MCG. Brisbane have been very impressive, now 8 wins on the trot. Geelong have been average and in the same period have lost to Port, Bulldogs, Hawks and Dockers.
I never said I wanted to lose to Brisbane in R23. To me, there is no defference between playing an inexperienced Brisbane away or Geelong at the G in week 1 (apart from finding a way to get up to Brisvegas). Our best chance of winning the flag is West Coast not making the top 2. They are by far the biggest danger.
If we beat Brisbane then there's a big chance West Coast will finish top 2.