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U.S Presidential Election
- Thread starter Chiang Mai Tiger
- Start date
Joe Biden will lose election: Top pollster Nate Silver predicts
Joe Biden is likely to face defeat in the November US election, according to a new prediction by top pollster Nate Silver.
Famed pollster Nate Silver said President Biden is headed for defeat this November due to his age and declining job performance – and the Democrats have “no plan to fix the problems.”
Mr Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of the FiveThirtyEight statistics website, said that, while the incumbent president “can still win,” it will only be the result of polls being wrong or “voters [who] look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it.”
“Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have a lot of extremely rational concerns about the prospect of a Commander-in-Chief who would be 86 years old by the end of his second term,” Silver wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” newsletter.
“It is entirely reasonable to see this as disqualifying.”
The New York Post sought comment from Mr Biden’s re-election campaign.
Last week, ABC News/Ipsos released the results of a poll showing that a staggering 86 per cent of adults think the 81-year-old Mr Biden is too old to serve another term in office.
Mr Biden supporters note that the presumptive GOP nominee, former President Donald Trump, faces significant legal challenges. Mr Silver countered that argument, saying that is “not a good reason to nominate Biden.”
Some polls show Mr Trump ahead of Mr Biden in key swing states.
“It is a reason for Democrats to be the adults in the room and acknowledge that someone who can’t sit through a Super Bowl interview isn’t someone the public can trust to have the physical and mental stamina to handle an international crisis, terrorist attack or some other unforeseen threat when he’ll be in his mid-80s,” Mr Silver wrote.
Mr Silver advised the Democrats that their “best option for beating Trump” might be to have Mr Biden step aside and for the party to pick their nominee at the convention in August.
He wrote that Mr Biden should make one final push to assuage doubts by agreeing to four tough media interviews over the next few weeks.
“This really isn’t too much to ask. These are the sorts of interviews that every other recent president has done,” Mr Silver wrote, adding that if he can’t, “it’s awfully audacious to ask Americans to make him president for another four years.”
Mr Biden last week skipped the traditional Super Bowl pre-game interview with CBS television — the second straight year that the president decided against the sit-down.
White House officials told reporters they decided because Super Bowl viewers wanted to watch football, not the president.
The New York Times editorial board said Mr Biden’s decision to skip the Super Bowl interview was part of a pattern of “less substantive, unscripted interaction with the public and the press than any other president in recent memory.”
Mr Biden bypassed the high-profile interview as his approval ratings linger below 40 per cent.
The decision intensified talk about Mr Biden’s mental acuity and stamina, particularly in light of a damning report by a special counsel who declined to bring charges against the president for mishandling classified documents because he was an “elderly man with a poor memory.”
The report by Robert Hur prompted a rebuke from Mr Biden, who said his “memory is fine.”
Mr Biden has also recently committed several verbal gaffes, which include forgetting the names of public figures as well as mixing up the heads of state of Mexico and Egypt
apple.news
Joe Biden is likely to face defeat in the November US election, according to a new prediction by top pollster Nate Silver.
Famed pollster Nate Silver said President Biden is headed for defeat this November due to his age and declining job performance – and the Democrats have “no plan to fix the problems.”
Mr Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of the FiveThirtyEight statistics website, said that, while the incumbent president “can still win,” it will only be the result of polls being wrong or “voters [who] look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it.”
“Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have a lot of extremely rational concerns about the prospect of a Commander-in-Chief who would be 86 years old by the end of his second term,” Silver wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” newsletter.
“It is entirely reasonable to see this as disqualifying.”
The New York Post sought comment from Mr Biden’s re-election campaign.
Last week, ABC News/Ipsos released the results of a poll showing that a staggering 86 per cent of adults think the 81-year-old Mr Biden is too old to serve another term in office.
Mr Biden supporters note that the presumptive GOP nominee, former President Donald Trump, faces significant legal challenges. Mr Silver countered that argument, saying that is “not a good reason to nominate Biden.”
Some polls show Mr Trump ahead of Mr Biden in key swing states.
“It is a reason for Democrats to be the adults in the room and acknowledge that someone who can’t sit through a Super Bowl interview isn’t someone the public can trust to have the physical and mental stamina to handle an international crisis, terrorist attack or some other unforeseen threat when he’ll be in his mid-80s,” Mr Silver wrote.
Mr Silver advised the Democrats that their “best option for beating Trump” might be to have Mr Biden step aside and for the party to pick their nominee at the convention in August.
He wrote that Mr Biden should make one final push to assuage doubts by agreeing to four tough media interviews over the next few weeks.
“This really isn’t too much to ask. These are the sorts of interviews that every other recent president has done,” Mr Silver wrote, adding that if he can’t, “it’s awfully audacious to ask Americans to make him president for another four years.”
Mr Biden last week skipped the traditional Super Bowl pre-game interview with CBS television — the second straight year that the president decided against the sit-down.
White House officials told reporters they decided because Super Bowl viewers wanted to watch football, not the president.
The New York Times editorial board said Mr Biden’s decision to skip the Super Bowl interview was part of a pattern of “less substantive, unscripted interaction with the public and the press than any other president in recent memory.”
Mr Biden bypassed the high-profile interview as his approval ratings linger below 40 per cent.
The decision intensified talk about Mr Biden’s mental acuity and stamina, particularly in light of a damning report by a special counsel who declined to bring charges against the president for mishandling classified documents because he was an “elderly man with a poor memory.”
The report by Robert Hur prompted a rebuke from Mr Biden, who said his “memory is fine.”
Mr Biden has also recently committed several verbal gaffes, which include forgetting the names of public figures as well as mixing up the heads of state of Mexico and Egypt
Top pollster predicts US election result — news.com.au
Joe Biden is likely to face defeat in the November US election, according to a new prediction by top pollster Nate Silver.
and the amazing technological marvel- the supermarket trolley where you put in a 10 rouble coin to encourage you to return it
I mean wow, what will they think of next
The corrupted and broken American political and legal system takes another turn for the worse this morning with the Supreme Court agreeing to hear the Orange Criminal's immunity appeal for his role in the January 6 riots and subversion of the election. What this means is that even if this farcical appeal is declined (not guaranteed given all the Republican judges that sit on the Supreme Court), that any trial for election subversion won't conceivably start until around mid-late August.
The appeal will be heard April 22 and a decision probably not handed down until June. That means that the election subversion trial judge (Chutkan) will need to give sufficient lead or preparation time to the Orange Criminal which places a start date of around mid-late August.
The Orange Criminal will then argue that the trial is too close to the US Presidential election and conflicts with "DOJ policy" on such (even though there isnt really a policy that exists) and that it should be postponed until after the election which, if he is re-elected, means he can't be prosecuted. The irony being of course that it has been the Orange Criminal himself that has delayed the trial (originally set for March) with incessant appeals, subterfuge etc. Unreal. What a disgraceful set of affairs.
It's now incumbent on American voters to apply justice themselves at the election, and ensure the defeat of the Orange Criminal so that he can be put on trial.
I'm not confident this diseased country has that capacity.
The appeal will be heard April 22 and a decision probably not handed down until June. That means that the election subversion trial judge (Chutkan) will need to give sufficient lead or preparation time to the Orange Criminal which places a start date of around mid-late August.
The Orange Criminal will then argue that the trial is too close to the US Presidential election and conflicts with "DOJ policy" on such (even though there isnt really a policy that exists) and that it should be postponed until after the election which, if he is re-elected, means he can't be prosecuted. The irony being of course that it has been the Orange Criminal himself that has delayed the trial (originally set for March) with incessant appeals, subterfuge etc. Unreal. What a disgraceful set of affairs.
It's now incumbent on American voters to apply justice themselves at the election, and ensure the defeat of the Orange Criminal so that he can be put on trial.
I'm not confident this diseased country has that capacity.
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The anti Trumpers need to realise that the alternative is the same *smile* slightly different stench
consortiumnews.com
The Democracy Election
The deep crisis of U.S. democracy is not just the fault of one party, writes Nat Parry. The anxiety over the loss of democracy in the United States actually cuts across party lines. By Nat Parry Special to Consortium News Heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election season, a Quinnip
consortiumnews.com
It’s got me *smile* how in the 235 year history of American presidencies, only 1 ex president has wanted/needed to claim “ presidential immunity “
Why is that?
Why is that?
Thanks Harry, not quite as bad yet, but similar in OZ where it's all about the party n power instead of the mug punter. Costs almost billions in support funds to run a presidential campaign in the USA n it's now nothing more than controlling power for those that are in the upper echelons. Poor old bozo in the street gets nothing more than the right to assume the position.The anti Trumpers need to realise that the alternative is the same *smile* slightly different stench
The Democracy Election
The deep crisis of U.S. democracy is not just the fault of one party, writes Nat Parry. The anxiety over the loss of democracy in the United States actually cuts across party lines. By Nat Parry Special to Consortium News Heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election season, a Quinnip
ah those science hating Americans. they may all end up dying of a currently eradicated disease like smallpox one day
"As the highly contagious disease raged in a Broward county elementary school, Ladapo, a politically appointed acolyte of Florida’s far-right governor Ron DeSantis, wrote to parents telling them it was perfectly fine for parents to continue to send in their unvaccinated children."
www.theguardian.com
"As the highly contagious disease raged in a Broward county elementary school, Ladapo, a politically appointed acolyte of Florida’s far-right governor Ron DeSantis, wrote to parents telling them it was perfectly fine for parents to continue to send in their unvaccinated children."
Florida is swamped by disease outbreaks as quackery replaces science
The state is in the grip of a measles outbreak, yet Joseph Ladapo, the surgeon general, continues to ignore medical science to stop it
The anti Trumpers need to realise that the alternative is the same *smile* slightly different stench
The Democracy Election
The deep crisis of U.S. democracy is not just the fault of one party, writes Nat Parry. The anxiety over the loss of democracy in the United States actually cuts across party lines. By Nat Parry Special to Consortium News Heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election season, a Quinnip
Oh, the Dems are neo-liberal military industrial complex corporate shills to nearly the same extent as the GOP, but at least they still have some commitment to democracy, the Constitution and all of that. People don't realise that a new Trump administration will actively dismantle the checks and balances of US democracy to a far greater extent this time than in the first term. And there won't be adults in the room trying to keep any of this in check this time.
Might be the only ”ex president” but I thought Nixon and Clinton tried to exercise that right to presidential immunity.It’s got me *smile* how in the 235 year history of American presidencies, only 1 ex president has wanted/needed to claim “ presidential immunity “
Why is that?
You may be correct there Willo, but I don’t recall that. I do remember that tricky dicky got a pardon from Ford I think
Presidential immunity in the United States - Wikipedia
Tricky Dicky was exempt from a lawsuit brought against him by a sacked Dept of the Airforce official.
Bill Clinton, he of the loose pants zipper was not exempt because his sexual harassment charges occurred while he was governor of Arkansas. The charges were put aside until he vacated the Oval Office.
Yes I saw this, been reported in The age as well.
Apart from anything else the President doesn’t get to appoint ambassadors of other nations. He could withdraw Rudd’s credentials, effectively deporting him, but that would be unprecedented.
That being said having a brainless moron as US President is also unprecedented, except for 2017-21 of course.
