Then there are quite a few, a lot actually, who are hyped on the back of a few good WAFL/ SANFL colts or u18s games, might only be half a dozen in some cases. In Victoria, senior football isn't required at all for your CV, NAB league and champs is all that matters, and attendance at an elite private school.
There is no Timmy Watson about this years draft. The man who played his 50th senior game for Essendon on his 18th Birthday. (Thats one of my favourite footy facts). I understand Timmy was a freak and times have changed...but still. Dusty used to dominate for Vic Country, the Pioneers AND Castlemaine seniors. And I don't think he went to Caulfield Grammar.
excuse the self-quote, but as I was writing this post the other day I got to thinking about the modern trend towards elite u18 not playing, and not being required or expected to play senior football. When did this happen? Was this a rapid thing or has it happened gradually? To put another spin on it, can you imagine Tony Lockett not playing senior football for North Ballarat (at 15), much less St Kilda (at 17)? Quite frankly, it is a ridiculous thought.
The previous post just looked at a few highly rated players, but I decided to actually check and look at all u18 players and how many played senior state-league footy.
I had a few criteria:
1) must have played in the U18 champs, and ergo had a good junior career.
2) no overage players, must be 18. Thats the point.
3) must play more than 3 games at senior SANFL, WAFL, or VFL levels, this was originally to test if they held their spot. I didn't drill down into stats because the young fellas usually have to contend with low TOG, it was enough to keep getting a game. I expected this criteria to sift out a lot of players, but it didn't, it sifted out 6 players, more on that later. This criteria also eliminated the AFL academy v Collingwood VFL game, which wasn't for points and in reality another junior rep side.
So players who met the above criteria:
Marlin Corbett, Allies in the champs, Gold Coast Suns VFL, 10 games, 3 finals
Elijah Hewitt, WA in the champs, Swan Districts WAFL, 9 games
Jed Hagan, WA, East Fremantle WAFL, 8 games, 3 finals
Steely Green, WA, South Fremantle WAFL, 7 games, 1 final
Jack Cleaver, WA, East Fremantle WAFL, 7 games, 3 finals
A mere 5 players
The mere 6 players who were sifted out by the 3 game min criteria, Will Ashcroft*, Lloyd Johnston**, Darcy Jones, Jed Busslinger, Shadeau Brain, Max Michalanney, Paul Pascu.
I started doing this just thinking 'doesn't seem like many played senior footy, I wonder how many actually did?'
But then it brought up all sorts of questions.
Victoria
Vic is the centre of footy and produces the most players, and has a highly developed and refined elite junior system. We all know this, but I'd never really thought about the implications of this. In the olden days, juniors played teal cup, and seniors in lower leagues. Up until more recently players played Nab League, u18 champs, school footy, and a few seniors for their club. Nowadays it just doesn't happen. Has this been by design? or has it just evolved? Does it effect development? On the last question, I'd say with the very good players no, they get drafted regardless, but players who may be less glamourous? Maybe. Has it eliminated the smokie? It has generally had an effect, but I'd say on balance yes and no. Yes because most players who may have been smokies in the past would now be in the system, inside the elite junior tent. No because if you are not identified early and outside the tent, it might be harder to get noticed.
I also think the private school factor is big, they seem to be more and more integral to the whole Vic model.
So in Victoria elite juniors, for better or worse, don't play senior footy, full stop.
(A thought on this, if VFL doesn't matter in Vic, why did the single VFL game for Box Hill played by Sonzerelli generate so much press? It was as if it was this crazy novelty, but was emphasised as proving his ability)
(I can't work Pascu out, apparently played 2 games for Essendon VFL, I have no idea why)
SA
I was surprised by the low numbers in WA and SA, especially SA, the juniors are still in the old VFL club-style u19s colts/ u18 / reserves/seniors. Unlike Victoria, there is no structural reason why juniors can't play seniors. a few play seniors, so why not more? Is it policy, not expected to play? Or is it just that juniors can't get a game? If it is policy, why do a few players play a few games? If just not many are good enough to get a game, does that reflect on the quality of juniors? 1 player played senior football in SA, and none met the criteria.
WA
As per SA, but more players playing seniors. 4 of the 5 players who met the criteria, and 6 of the 12 players total who played any seniors.
Allies
A few overage Suns academy players and Lions academy players were rolled through the VFL, but only 1 met the criteria.
A couple of outliers: **Lloyd Johnston. Only played 2 VFL games for Suns VFL but this was only because he lives in the NT and the didn't have access to him for long, acquitted himself well.
* Will Ashcroft, another outlier, a hybrid case, VM but also linked to Lions and played 3 VFL games for them, and absolutely killed it. A Rolls Royce at the level.
Anyway, I thought it might be interesting, I was interested, and I'd be interested in doing some real number crunching, to test this variable as a predictor of success statistically. I won't be doing it but I'd love to see it.
I think the Tigers do value senior experience at the back end of the draft. We plucked Cumberland and Martyn from the Brisbane academy on the back of some good NEAFL finals performances.